CAJ | 학술논문

考虑一个供应商和一个零售商组成的两级供应链,零售商运用移动平均和指数平滑技术预测提前期需求,分析价格波动下消费者的价格预测行为对牛鞭效应的影响.结果表明,消费者的价格预测行为有助于减小牛鞭效应:一方面,消费者越关注历史价格的波动,越有助于减小牛鞭效应;另一方面,消费者观察到更长期的历史价格可以进一步减小牛鞭效应.文章同时研究了一个供应商和多个零售商组成的两级供应链,并推导出总订货量相对于总需求量波动的牛鞭效应解析式.
고필일개공응상화일개령수상조성적량급공응련,령수상운용이동평균화지수평활기술예측제전기수구,분석개격파동하소비자적개격예측행위대우편효응적영향.결과표명,소비자적개격예측행위유조우감소우편효응:일방면,소비자월관주역사개격적파동,월유조우감소우편효응;령일방면,소비자관찰도경장기적역사개격가이진일보감소우편효응.문장동시연구료일개공응상화다개령수상조성적량급공응련,병추도출총정화량상대우총수구량파동적우편효응해석식.
In a single two-stage supply chain with one supplier and one retailer , where the retailer uses the mov-ing average(MA)and exponential smoothing(ES)forecasting techniques, we analyze the impact of price forecast by customers on Bullwhip Effect(BWE)under price fluctuation.The results show that, customers’ price forecas-ting behavior can reduce BWE.First, the more customers concern about price fluctuation , the smaller the BWE is; second, a longer-term historical price that cusfomers observe can further reduce the BWE .We extend these results to multiple retailers and derive the analytical total order quantity increase in variability .