CAJ | 학술논문

本文在分析1979~2010年福建省财政收入和 GDP 演变轨迹的基础上,应用协整理论,分析了福建省财政收入与 GDP 之间的关系,结果表明它们都是2阶单整序列,但二者之间没有协整关系;而财政收入年度增量与 GDP 年度增量之间具有协整关系.根据协整模型,GDP 年度增量变动时,财政收入年度增量将同方向成比例变动,均衡比例系数是0.1749.进一步地,建立了财政收入年度增量与 GDP 年度增量序列误差修正模型,得到的结果是:误差修正项的系数为负,符合反向修正机制,调整量是前一年偏离长期比例关系的偏离幅度的1.0716倍.格兰杰因果关系检验表明,从长期看 GDP 年度增量是财政收入年度增量的决定因素,短期内财政收入年度增量也是 GDP 年度增量的影响因素.因此,可以用 GDP 的变化来解释和预测财政收入的变化,并对福建省“十二五”期间财政收入进行了预测.最后,归纳了研究结果并讨论了三个相关问题.
본문재분석1979~2010년복건성재정수입화 GDP 연변궤적적기출상,응용협정이론,분석료복건성재정수입여 GDP 지간적관계,결과표명타문도시2계단정서렬,단이자지간몰유협정관계;이재정수입년도증량여 GDP 년도증량지간구유협정관계.근거협정모형,GDP 년도증량변동시,재정수입년도증량장동방향성비례변동,균형비례계수시0.1749.진일보지,건립료재정수입년도증량여 GDP 년도증량서렬오차수정모형,득도적결과시:오차수정항적계수위부,부합반향수정궤제,조정량시전일년편리장기비례관계적편리폭도적1.0716배.격란걸인과관계검험표명,종장기간 GDP 년도증량시재정수입년도증량적결정인소,단기내재정수입년도증량야시 GDP 년도증량적영향인소.인차,가이용 GDP 적변화래해석화예측재정수입적변화,병대복건성“십이오”기간재정수입진행료예측.최후,귀납료연구결과병토론료삼개상관문제.
Based on the analysis of the evolution tracks of financial revenue and GDP in Fujian province from 1979 to 2010, this paper analyzes the relationship between financial revenue and GDP by means of co -integration theory, and finds out the financial revenue series and the GDP series are both I (2)series, however,co-integra-tion relationship does not exist in them instead in annual financial revenue increment and annual GDP increment . According to the co-integration model, if the latter changes one unit, then the former will change in proportion in the same direction,and the equilibrium ratio coefficient willbe 0.1749.Furthermore, we establishes the error correction model of the annual revenue increment series and the annual GDP increment series , and the result is:the coefficient of the error correction term is negative , which accords with the reverse correction mechanism .In addition,the adjusting amount is 1.0716 times comparied with the last deviation range of deviating from long -term proportion relationship.The Granger causality test shows that the annual increment of GDP is the decisive factor of the annual increment of revenue in a long term , and the annual increment of revenue also influences the annu -al increment of GDP in a short term .Thus, changes of GDP can be used to explain and predict changes of reve -nue, and this paper predicts financial revenue of the National Twelfth Five -Year Plan period in Fujian province. It summarizes the results and discusses three related issues finally .