CAJ | 학술논문

目的了解医院2000年-2011年门诊量的趋势,探讨灰色预测模型 GM (1,1)在时间序列资料中的应用,建立预测医院月门诊量的时间序列模型,为优化医疗资源配置提供科学的统计学依据.方法根据医院2000年-2011年门诊量数据,应用 MATLAB 软件建立灰色预测模型并进行模型评价,预测2012年-2014年的门诊量.结果 GM (1,1)模型为:^Y ( t)=552512.3619 e0.1021( t -1)-478343.3619,预测值的相对误差小于20%,模型精度为优(C = 0.29,P =1.00),预测效果好,2012年-2014年医院门诊量预测值分别为182612、202243、223984.结论GM (1,1)灰色模型能很好的拟合门诊量的变动趋势,在无外界因素影响的情况下,医院门诊量将会继续上涨.
목적료해의원2000년-2011년문진량적추세,탐토회색예측모형 GM (1,1)재시간서렬자료중적응용,건립예측의원월문진량적시간서렬모형,위우화의료자원배치제공과학적통계학의거.방법근거의원2000년-2011년문진량수거,응용 MATLAB 연건건립회색예측모형병진행모형평개,예측2012년-2014년적문진량.결과 GM (1,1)모형위:^Y ( t)=552512.3619 e0.1021( t -1)-478343.3619,예측치적상대오차소우20%,모형정도위우(C = 0.29,P =1.00),예측효과호,2012년-2014년의원문진량예측치분별위182612、202243、223984.결론GM (1,1)회색모형능흔호적의합문진량적변동추세,재무외계인소영향적정황하,의원문진량장회계속상창.
Objective To investigate the outpatients quantity trend from 2000 to 2011 ,discuss the application of Grey Model (1 ,1)in the time se-ries data ,and build prediction model based on mensual quantity of outpatient and provide scientific ,statistical according for optimization of medical treatment resource col ection .Methods Based on the outpatients quantity from 2000 to 2011 ,we made the grey system GM (1 ,1)forecast model and gave the model evaluation ,then give the forecast from 2012 to 2014 .Results The Grey Model(1 ,1) is :^Y ( t) = 552512 .3619 e0 .1021( t - 1) - 478343 . 3619 .The relative error values of predictive value are al less than 0 .20 and model is testified to be satisfied(C = 0 .29 , P = 1 .00) .The predictive val-ue from 2012 to 2014 are 182612 、202243 and 223984 .Conclusion The Grey Model (1 ,1) had a good matching .The hospital outpatient quantity wil continue to rise in the absence of external factors .