CAJ | 학술논문

盐岩地下储库以其优良的密闭性及安全性得到日益广泛的应用,但对其体系可靠性及风险的研究尚属探索阶段.运用系统可靠性理论,对储库群在设计运营期内的失效进行定义.考虑运营期内盐岩蠕变引起的腔体体积收缩和矿柱塑性区发展对储库群系统可靠性的影响,给出储库群系统的多种失效模式,建立储库群系统可靠性分析模型.在考虑相关性的基础上,应用“最弱失效模式假设”对储库群系统进行时变可靠性分析评价.以金坛盐岩地下储库为工程背景,建立储库群数值模型,进行时变可靠性分析,得到一些有价值的结论.提出盐岩地下储库群系统时变可靠性分析方法,为盐岩地下储库群的安全运营和稳定性评价提供科学的依据.
염암지하저고이기우량적밀폐성급안전성득도일익엄범적응용,단대기체계가고성급풍험적연구상속탐색계단.운용계통가고성이론,대저고군재설계운영기내적실효진행정의.고필운영기내염암연변인기적강체체적수축화광주소성구발전대저고군계통가고성적영향,급출저고군계통적다충실효모식,건립저고군계통가고성분석모형.재고필상관성적기출상,응용“최약실효모식가설”대저고군계통진행시변가고성분석평개.이금단염암지하저고위공정배경,건립저고군수치모형,진행시변가고성분석,득도일사유개치적결론.제출염암지하저고군계통시변가고성분석방법,위염암지하저고군적안전운영화은정성평개제공과학적의거.
Underground salt rock storage cavern is widely used for its good sealability and safety performance, but the research on its system reliability and risk is still at the exploratory stage. Based on the system reliability analysis theory,the failure of storage group is defined in this article. Considering the influence of the cavern′s volume shrinkage and pillar′s plastic zone development resulting from salt rock′s creep property during operation period,the multiple failure modes of the storage group are given and the system reliability mode is built. Considering the correlativity of different elements and using the weakest failure mode assumption,the time-variant system reliability of underground salt rock storage group is analyzed. Based on Jintan salt rock storage group,a salt rock storage group numerical model is established and its time-variant system reliability is studied,and some valuable conclusions are obtained. A method of time-variant system reliability analysis is proposed and the result can provide reference for the safe operation and stability evaluation of the salt rock storage groups.