CAJ | 학술논문

设计雨型是暴雨洪水分析不可或缺的基本要素,为此,本文建立了雨型分析的风险率模型,探讨了考虑风险率模式下的雨型设计方法,并以此方法分析了深圳市深圳雨量站1969—2002年实测逐时降雨资料,获得了深圳市不同重现期下的设计雨型,并与深圳市目前主要的几种设计雨型进行了比较.结果显示:(1)典型暴雨同倍比放大法和模糊聚类分析方法都存在风险率设计不足的问题;(2)SCS-Ⅱ法则因为安全度过高不适合深圳地区使用;(3)典型暴雨同频率放大法设计雨型与风险率分析法相似,但雨峰设计存在差异;(4)风险率分析方法对设计雨型的分析具有科学合理的指导意义,可以作为一种雨型的设计方法.
설계우형시폭우홍수분석불가혹결적기본요소,위차,본문건립료우형분석적풍험솔모형,탐토료고필풍험솔모식하적우형설계방법,병이차방법분석료심수시심수우량참1969—2002년실측축시강우자료,획득료심수시불동중현기하적설계우형,병여심수시목전주요적궤충설계우형진행료비교.결과현시:(1)전형폭우동배비방대법화모호취류분석방법도존재풍험솔설계불족적문제;(2)SCS-Ⅱ법칙인위안전도과고불괄합심수지구사용;(3)전형폭우동빈솔방대법설계우형여풍험솔분석법상사,단우봉설계존재차이;(4)풍험솔분석방법대설계우형적분석구유과학합리적지도의의,가이작위일충우형적설계방법.
@@@@Design hyetograph is the essential element for storm flood calculation. To get a more reasonable design hyetograph, this paper presents a risk probability model for calculating the design hyetograph. As a case study using the hourly rainfall data in Shenzhen from 1969 to 2002,the design hyetographs of different return period were analyzed based on the risk probability models and compared them with the traditional methods. The main achievements are summarized as follows:(1)The results show that there are risk problems for the design hyetograph enlarging method by the same multiple and fuzzy cluster analysis method used in Shenzhen;(2)SCS-Ⅱ method used for calculation of design hyetograph is not fit for use in Shenzhen because of too high security;(3)The design hyetograph enlarging method by the same frequency and risk probability analysis method (RADH) have similar rainfall structure, but the differences certainly exist in rainfall peak design;(4)The RADH method is reasonable and will provide reference for the computation of design hyetograph.