CAJ | 학술논문

构建郑西高铁对“郑洛工业走廊”的影响指标框架,基于灰色预测模型和多元回归模型,预测出2009年和2010年“无”郑西高铁时,郑州市、洛阳市的指标数据,采用“有无对比法”,分析了郑西高铁对郑洛两市的贡献率:2009年和2010年,郑州和洛阳“有”郑西高铁比“无”郑西高铁的经济联系强度分别多了10个单位和15个单位,高铁贡献率分别为9.61%和10.96%;在绝对达到时间上,节省效率分别是34.27%和32.86%,旅客加权平均时间降低约14.18%和19.8%;对三大产业变化也产生了不同程度的影响.区域间高铁通道促进了“同城化”现象发展,加快沿线城市产业布局升级和整合,实现区域间人才、信息等要素快速流动,带动相关产业由经济发达地区向欠发达地区转移.但是,应该注意高铁建成初期所产生的“极化效应”和后期“涓滴效应”的经济资源配置关系.
구건정서고철대“정락공업주랑”적영향지표광가,기우회색예측모형화다원회귀모형,예측출2009년화2010년“무”정서고철시,정주시、락양시적지표수거,채용“유무대비법”,분석료정서고철대정락량시적공헌솔:2009년화2010년,정주화락양“유”정서고철비“무”정서고철적경제련계강도분별다료10개단위화15개단위,고철공헌솔분별위9.61%화10.96%;재절대체도시간상,절성효솔분별시34.27%화32.86%,여객가권평균시간강저약14.18%화19.8%;대삼대산업변화야산생료불동정도적영향.구역간고철통도촉진료“동성화”현상발전,가쾌연선성시산업포국승급화정합,실현구역간인재、신식등요소쾌속류동,대동상관산업유경제발체지구향흠발체지구전이.단시,응해주의고철건성초기소산생적“겁화효응”화후기“연적효응”적경제자원배치관계.
@@@@The influence economic index framework of“Zheng-Xi high-speed rail”was constructed. Without“Zheng-Xi high-speed rail”,the authors uses“grey forecasting model” predicting the data of Zhengzhou and Luoyang in 2009 and 2010. Adopting to“with and without comparsion method”,we analyze each index contribution rate. In 2009 and 2010,Zhengzhou and Luoyang’s economic relation force increase 10 units and 15 units respectively,and the contribution of high speed railway is 9.61%and 10.96%respectively. On absolute reach time, compared with the other two kinds of mode of transportation,which saves time 49 min and 46 min respectively, and the passenger weighted average time reduced by 14.18% and 19.8% respectively,which also produces the different influences of the third industry. Zheng-Xi high-speed rail promotes the“urban integration”phenomenon, speeds up the city along the industrial layout upgrade and integration,realizes regional talent,information elements flow,and drives related industries to flow from less developed regions to developed areas. But we should pay attention to“the polarization effect” and later“a trickle-down effect” relationship.