华东经济管理
華東經濟管理
화동경제관리
EAST CHINA ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
2013年
6期
21-26
,共6页
产业结构优化%金融支持%协整分析%偏离—份额法
產業結構優化%金融支持%協整分析%偏離—份額法
산업결구우화%금융지지%협정분석%편리—빈액법
industrial structure optimization%financial support%co-integration analysis%SSM
随着蓝黄战略逐步上升为国家发展战略,山东省面临着经济发展新契机.但当前省内产业结构不合理,制约着区域经济的发展,推动产业结构优化成为山东省经济增长的关键驱动力.国内外经验表明,金融发展对产业结构优化具有积极推动作用.在对山东省产业结构采用修正的偏离—份额法分析的基础上,文章选取衡量产业结构优化和金融发展水平的指标,建立VAR模型,在此基础上对山东省内产业结构优化和金融发展间的关系进行协整分析和格兰杰检验.结果表明山东省金融发展与产业结构优化间存在长期均衡关系,金融发展是推动产业结构优化的格兰杰原因.通过脉冲响应得出,区域内金融效率的提高对产业结构优化的作用力最大,外资及区域内金融规模的提高也对产业结构优化有积极作用.
隨著藍黃戰略逐步上升為國傢髮展戰略,山東省麵臨著經濟髮展新契機.但噹前省內產業結構不閤理,製約著區域經濟的髮展,推動產業結構優化成為山東省經濟增長的關鍵驅動力.國內外經驗錶明,金融髮展對產業結構優化具有積極推動作用.在對山東省產業結構採用脩正的偏離—份額法分析的基礎上,文章選取衡量產業結構優化和金融髮展水平的指標,建立VAR模型,在此基礎上對山東省內產業結構優化和金融髮展間的關繫進行協整分析和格蘭傑檢驗.結果錶明山東省金融髮展與產業結構優化間存在長期均衡關繫,金融髮展是推動產業結構優化的格蘭傑原因.通過脈遲響應得齣,區域內金融效率的提高對產業結構優化的作用力最大,外資及區域內金融規模的提高也對產業結構優化有積極作用.
수착람황전략축보상승위국가발전전략,산동성면림착경제발전신계궤.단당전성내산업결구불합리,제약착구역경제적발전,추동산업결구우화성위산동성경제증장적관건구동력.국내외경험표명,금융발전대산업결구우화구유적겁추동작용.재대산동성산업결구채용수정적편리—빈액법분석적기출상,문장선취형양산업결구우화화금융발전수평적지표,건립VAR모형,재차기출상대산동성내산업결구우화화금융발전간적관계진행협정분석화격란걸검험.결과표명산동성금융발전여산업결구우화간존재장기균형관계,금융발전시추동산업결구우화적격란걸원인.통과맥충향응득출,구역내금융효솔적제고대산업결구우화적작용력최대,외자급구역내금융규모적제고야대산업결구우화유적겁작용.
@@@@With blue and yellow strategy gradually rose to national development strategy, Shandong province is facing a new op?portunity for the economic development.But irrational industrial structure becomes as a constraint to the whole bottleneck of economic development.To adjust regional industrial structure becomes the primary task of the future economic development. Domestic and international experience shows that,financial development has a positive role in promoting the optimization of in?dustrial structure.Based on the modified shift-share analysis method on the industrial structure of Shandong Province,this paper chooses an optimization of the industrial structure and the level of financial development indicators,and establishes a VAR model,makes a co-integration analysis and Grainger test on the relationship of the optimization of the industrial structure of Shandong province and financial development.The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between Shandong financial development and optimization of the industrial structure,financial development is the Grainger reason to promote industrial structure optimization.Through impulse response,the paper finds that the financial efficiency within the re?gion to improve the maximum force to optimize the industrial structure,and the financial scale of foreign capital and region can have a positive effect on the optimization of industrial structure.
