CAJ | 학술논문

为了阐述陕西省的耕地面积变化及其压力状况,基于60 a统计数据,分析了陕西省耕地数量随时间变化特点,计算了耕地压力指数,利用GM(1,1)模型预测了全省未来10 a耕地面积及其人均耕地面积变化.结果表明,1949-2010年的60 a时间里,陕西省耕地面积总体呈现下降趋势,下降了152.41万hm2,旱地是耕地的主体,减少了181.35万hm2,而水浇地面积增加了77.51万hm2,耕地结构趋于合理;人均耕地面积下降了0.28 hm2,1980年以前的30 a时间下降最明显,到2010年为0.10 hm2.未来10 a里,全省耕地面积和人均耕地面积会有一定的下降,但降幅不明显,且3种预案条件下(人均年粮食需求量380、400、420 kg),耕地压力过大出现的时间不同,人均年粮食需求量420 kg下最小人均耕地面积出现的时间最早(2014年),人均年粮食需求量400 kg下最小人均耕地面积出现在2017年,并基于此对陕西省粮食安全问题提出了相应建议.
위료천술합서성적경지면적변화급기압력상황,기우60 a통계수거,분석료합서성경지수량수시간변화특점,계산료경지압력지수,이용GM(1,1)모형예측료전성미래10 a경지면적급기인균경지면적변화.결과표명,1949-2010년적60 a시간리,합서성경지면적총체정현하강추세,하강료152.41만hm2,한지시경지적주체,감소료181.35만hm2,이수요지면적증가료77.51만hm2,경지결구추우합리;인균경지면적하강료0.28 hm2,1980년이전적30 a시간하강최명현,도2010년위0.10 hm2.미래10 a리,전성경지면적화인균경지면적회유일정적하강,단강폭불명현,차3충예안조건하(인균년양식수구량380、400、420 kg),경지압력과대출현적시간불동,인균년양식수구량420 kg하최소인균경지면적출현적시간최조(2014년),인균년양식수구량400 kg하최소인균경지면적출현재2017년,병기우차대합서성양식안전문제제출료상응건의.
@@@@Cropland is a very important land resource for maintaining peoples living and grain safety. Many researchers study cropland change and predict future trends at the different scales, and the results are not ideal because the short time series statistic data cannot show cropland change characteristics and the regression model method is not perfect for simulating future cropland trends. Shaanxi is an agriculture province in western China and is representative of all agriculture production. Statistical yearbooks are very important for analysis of long time series in China. We obtained 60 years’ worth of cropland statistics from the statistical yearbooks of Shaanxi province between 1949 and 2010. @@@@The area change characteristics and pressure conditions of the cropland from 1949 to 2010 were analyzed for service agriculture production and food security based on these data. The cropland pressure index was calculated and GM (1, 1) model was used to forecast the trend of cropland and cropland acreage per capita for the future ten years. In order to ensure that the results were credible, non-parametric analysis was used to analyze the interaction between different parameters. The results showed that cropland consisted of arid land, irrigated land, and marshy fields. Arid land was the main type of cropland in Shaanxi province, and accounted for 94.63% of cropland acreage in 1949 and 63.40%in 2010. There was 438.47×104 hm2 cropland in 1949 and 286.05×104 hm2 in 2010, which decreased 152.41×104 hm2 and reduced 2.46×104 hm2 per year from 1949 to 2010. The acreage of irrigated land and marshy fields increased, with the increased acreage amount of irrigated land being more than that of marshy fields. The acreage of irrigated land increased 77.51×104 hm2 between 1949 and 2010. Arid land had an effect on cropland acreage change. Cropland structure became more reasonable and experienced the increased stage and reduced stage repeatedly between 1949 and 2010. Cropland acreage per capita was 0.38 hm2 in 1949 and 0.10 hm2 in 2010 and decreased 0.28 hm2, the change of which during 1949 to 1980 was more obvious than that after 1980. According to non-parameter analysis, cropland acreage per capita was affected by population that added 2417.17×104 peoples during the past 60 years. Based on the GM (1,1) models of cropland acreage per capita and cropland acreage, the amount of cropland and cropland acreage per capita will be 286.10× 104 hm2 and 0.090 hm2 in 2013, 281.68×104 hm2 and 0.087 hm2 in 2015, and 270.92×104 hm2 and 0.079 hm2 in 2020, respectively. Under different projected conditions, excessive pressure of cropland happened in different times. Smin (420) condition was in the earliest time (2014) and Smin (400) in 2017. GM(1, 1)was suitable to simulate the future cropland change. Some suggestions were provided to prohibit food security issues and maintain the amount of cropland at the higher level in Shaanxi province.