农业工程学报
農業工程學報
농업공정학보
2013年
11期
286-292
,共7页
食物供给%模型%预测%食物安全%预警
食物供給%模型%預測%食物安全%預警
식물공급%모형%예측%식물안전%예경
food supply%models%forecasting%food safety%early warning
该文基于1980-2011年的人均粮食、禽蛋、肉类和水产品的产量和消费量数据,以及4类产品的价格指数数据,构建了中国食物安全预警的指标体系,运用向量自回归模型(VAR)对食物安全指标进行预测,再采用主成分法合成食物安全总指数,在此基础上对2012-2013年的食物安全状况进行预警分析.结果表明:基于1980-2011年的数据得到2012年和2013年的食物安全总指数分别为62和74.通过对2011年的预警值与实际值的比较,得到该预警模型的预测误差仅为4.2%,说明该模型系统的预测精度较高,可以用于未来中国食物安全预警研究.总体来看,2012-2013年中国食物安全状况为轻警.
該文基于1980-2011年的人均糧食、禽蛋、肉類和水產品的產量和消費量數據,以及4類產品的價格指數數據,構建瞭中國食物安全預警的指標體繫,運用嚮量自迴歸模型(VAR)對食物安全指標進行預測,再採用主成分法閤成食物安全總指數,在此基礎上對2012-2013年的食物安全狀況進行預警分析.結果錶明:基于1980-2011年的數據得到2012年和2013年的食物安全總指數分彆為62和74.通過對2011年的預警值與實際值的比較,得到該預警模型的預測誤差僅為4.2%,說明該模型繫統的預測精度較高,可以用于未來中國食物安全預警研究.總體來看,2012-2013年中國食物安全狀況為輕警.
해문기우1980-2011년적인균양식、금단、육류화수산품적산량화소비량수거,이급4류산품적개격지수수거,구건료중국식물안전예경적지표체계,운용향량자회귀모형(VAR)대식물안전지표진행예측,재채용주성분법합성식물안전총지수,재차기출상대2012-2013년적식물안전상황진행예경분석.결과표명:기우1980-2011년적수거득도2012년화2013년적식물안전총지수분별위62화74.통과대2011년적예경치여실제치적비교,득도해예경모형적예측오차부위4.2%,설명해모형계통적예측정도교고,가이용우미래중국식물안전예경연구.총체래간,2012-2013년중국식물안전상황위경경.
@@@@Food safety pre-warning is the process including the application of the pre-warning theory and method, analysis and evaluation of relevant indicators reflecting food safety conditions, prediction of safety development and sounding the pre-warning. China’s food safety pre-warning supply derived from the study of China's grain security early warning system, which can be divided into a traditional warning model and a modern warning model. The traditional model is mainly based on the predictions of the trend of the grain production growth rate, predictions of grain supply and demand, predictions of grain staff indexes, predictions of grain fluctuation cycle, and predictions of prosperity. @@@@Based on China’s per capita production and consumption of grain, eggs, meat, aquaculture products, and the price indexes of these four types of products from 1980 to 2011, this study establishes the index for China’s food safety early-warning system. The Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) is used to predict China’s food safety indicators, and the Principal Component statistical method is used to synthesize the aggregated food safety index, and China’s food safety in 2012 and 2013 are projected. Specifically, this study first predicts the food safety indicators by VAR, then synthesize all indicators to an aggregated food safety index using the Principal Component statistical method. The results of this study show that the aggregated indexes of China’s food safety of 2012 and 2013 are 62 and 74, respectively. Compared with the real data of 2011, it shows that the prediction error of this model is only 4.2%, which means this model has a high projection precision and can be used for the projection of China’s future food security. The results of this study also show that China will have a moderate level of concern on its food safety in 2012-2013. @@@@In recent years, due to the straining support posed by acceleration of urbanization, shrinking lands, serious contradiction between industrial and agricultural water, lack of investment in water conservancy, and the policy of returning the grain plots to forestry, although we have achieved 8-year grain production harvests consecutively, the depleting resources exacerbated the risk of future food safety, coupled with an upgrading food consumption structure, which has made the food safety situation quite tense.
