CAJ | 학술논문

构建了一套多维度定量化评判城市化与社会经济发展协调性的评价体系,并选取协调发展度作为等级判断标准,据此以安徽省地级市作为基本单位的面板数据进行实证研究.结果表明,安徽省城市化与社会经济发展协调性的时空变异存在较好的规律性,表现为:时间序列上,研究期内大部分地级市协调发展度指数大于0.5,总体呈现协调发展态势,“路径依赖”较强,“高中低”三层稳固演化,且“两极分化”逐步强化.空间变异上,中心城市凸显,呈沿江和内陆“双核双带”模式发展,东西两翼、南北两端差异显著,空间自相关性、趋同性和集中性较高.演变趋势上,大部分地域在小幅波动变化中出现稳中有降,且从东北向西南下降速率逐步减小.
구건료일투다유도정양화평판성시화여사회경제발전협조성적평개체계,병선취협조발전도작위등급판단표준,거차이안휘성지급시작위기본단위적면판수거진행실증연구.결과표명,안휘성성시화여사회경제발전협조성적시공변이존재교호적규률성,표현위:시간서렬상,연구기내대부분지급시협조발전도지수대우0.5,총체정현협조발전태세,“로경의뢰”교강,“고중저”삼층은고연화,차“량겁분화”축보강화.공간변이상,중심성시철현,정연강화내륙“쌍핵쌍대”모식발전,동서량익、남북량단차이현저,공간자상관성、추동성화집중성교고.연변추세상,대부분지역재소폭파동변화중출현은중유강,차종동북향서남하강속솔축보감소.
To construct a set of multidimensional quantitative evaluation of city and social economic development coordination evaluation system, and selects the coordinated development degree as the rating criteria, according to the city of Anhui Province as the basic unit of the panel data empirical research. The results show that the temporal and spatial variation of Anhui Province, city and the coordinated development of economy and society existence regularity, good performance is: time series, during the research period, most of the city coordinated development degree index greater than 0.5, the overall presentation of the coordinated development of the situation, "path dependence" strong, "high" three layers of firm evolution, and "polarization" progressive enhancement. Spatial variability, center city is highlighted, along the Yangtze River and inland "dual-core dual" model of development, East and West, North and South difference, spatial autocorrelation, convergence and higher. The evolution trend, most of the region in the small fluctuations stability changes, and from northeast to southwest descent rate gradually decreases.