CAJ | 학술논문

旱灾风险管理是抗旱减灾的科学手段、干旱及旱灾研究的重要方向，定量评估旱灾风险是旱灾风险管理的核心内容。为降低各种不确定性因素影响下旱灾风险评估结果的误差，提高结果的可靠性，提出运用信息扩散法估计旱灾损失的超越概率，结合自助法的区间估计算法，建立基于信息扩散与自助法的灾害风险评估模型，用不同置信水平下旱灾损失对应超越概率的置信区间来反映旱灾风险。将该模型运用于安徽省农业易旱地区干旱灾害风险评估，计算并确定在置信水平为0.75时安徽省易旱地区的旱灾风险区间评估结果合理、可靠，可为抗旱规划提供科学的决策依据。
한재풍험관리시항한감재적과학수단、간한급한재연구적중요방향，정량평고한재풍험시한재풍험관리적핵심내용。위강저각충불학정성인소영향하한재풍험평고결과적오차，제고결과적가고성，제출운용신식확산법고계한재손실적초월개솔，결합자조법적구간고계산법，건립기우신식확산여자조법적재해풍험평고모형，용불동치신수평하한재손실대응초월개솔적치신구간래반영한재풍험。장해모형운용우안휘성농업역한지구간한재해풍험평고，계산병학정재치신수평위0.75시안휘성역한지구적한재풍험구간평고결과합리、가고，가위항한규화제공과학적결책의거。
Drought risk management is a scientific way of drought mitigation and an important field in drought research.The risk quantitative assessment is the core of drought risk management.In order to reduce the error that caused by uncertainties and improve the reliability,a drought risk assessment model based on information diffusion and bootstrap is built,and the information diffusion and bootstrap are used to estimate the exceeding probabilities of drought loss and confidence interval of exceeding probabilities respectively.And then,the drought risk levels are presented by confidence interval.The model is used to assess drought risk of drought-prone areas in Anhui Prov-ince,and the calculations showed that the assessment results under 0.75 confidence level is reasonable and relia-ble,which would provide a scientific basis for drought mitigation planning.