灾害学
災害學
재해학
JOURNAL OF CATASTROPHOLOGY
2015年
1期
92-95,107
,共5页
王伟丽%吴洪颜%贺金芳%朱双
王偉麗%吳洪顏%賀金芳%硃雙
왕위려%오홍안%하금방%주쌍
信息扩散理论%酸雨%风险评估%江苏省
信息擴散理論%痠雨%風險評估%江囌省
신식확산이론%산우%풍험평고%강소성
Information Diffusion Theory%acid rain%risk assessment%Jiangsu Province
利用江苏省2008-2013年24个站的酸雨监测资料,分析出2008-2013年江苏省酸雨的强度和发生频率都有下降趋势,秋冬季酸雨发生频率高,夏季最低。基于信息扩散理论对全省酸雨进行风险评估,结果发现:年降水pH值和酸雨发生频率在不同风险水平分布特征较为一致,呈西北-东南逐渐增强趋势;年降水pH值80%的可能介于4.5~5.6之间,呈弱酸性;淮河以南地区酸雨发生频率的风险为40%的概率超过90%。
利用江囌省2008-2013年24箇站的痠雨鑑測資料,分析齣2008-2013年江囌省痠雨的彊度和髮生頻率都有下降趨勢,鞦鼕季痠雨髮生頻率高,夏季最低。基于信息擴散理論對全省痠雨進行風險評估,結果髮現:年降水pH值和痠雨髮生頻率在不同風險水平分佈特徵較為一緻,呈西北-東南逐漸增彊趨勢;年降水pH值80%的可能介于4.5~5.6之間,呈弱痠性;淮河以南地區痠雨髮生頻率的風險為40%的概率超過90%。
이용강소성2008-2013년24개참적산우감측자료,분석출2008-2013년강소성산우적강도화발생빈솔도유하강추세,추동계산우발생빈솔고,하계최저。기우신식확산이론대전성산우진행풍험평고,결과발현:년강수pH치화산우발생빈솔재불동풍험수평분포특정교위일치,정서북-동남축점증강추세;년강수pH치80%적가능개우4.5~5.6지간,정약산성;회하이남지구산우발생빈솔적풍험위40%적개솔초과90%。
Data of acid rain from 24 stations during 2008-201 3 are used to analyze the trends of acid rain in Jiangsu Province.It is shown that the intensity and frequency of acid rain are decreasing within the recent 6 years and the frequency is highest in autumn and winter and lowest in summer.The acid rain risk of the province is eval-uated based on information diffusion theory.The results indicate that:the distribution characteristics between the pH value of precipitation and the frequency of acid rain is consistent in different level of risk and it increases gradu-ally from Northwest to Southeast.The pH value of annual precipitation is between 3.8 and 4.5 with about 80%probability and it presents weak acidity.There is more than 90% probability that the acid rain is with 40% risk level in South of Huaihe River.