CAJ | 학술논문

为更加准确地确定舰船装备全寿命费用，提高装备经费的使用效益，针对我国舰船装备修理价格影响因素多、不确定性大的特点，提出采用组合预测方法对其进行预测建模；针对基于欧氏距离的组合预测方法不能处理用于组合的单项预测模型之间的相关性问题，提出采用马氏距离作为建模基础，建立基于马氏距离的舰船装备修理价格组合预测模型。应用结果显示，基于马氏距离的组合预测要比基于欧氏距离的组合预测以及各单项预测具有更好的稳定性，预测风险更小。
위경가준학지학정함선장비전수명비용，제고장비경비적사용효익，침대아국함선장비수리개격영향인소다、불학정성대적특점，제출채용조합예측방법대기진행예측건모；침대기우구씨거리적조합예측방법불능처리용우조합적단항예측모형지간적상관성문제，제출채용마씨거리작위건모기출，건립기우마씨거리적함선장비수리개격조합예측모형。응용결과현시，기우마씨거리적조합예측요비기우구씨거리적조합예측이급각단항예측구유경호적은정성，예측풍험경소。
The determination of the maintenance fees for warship equipment involves many factors and huge uncertainty. To confirm the life cycle cost of warship equipment more exactly, the forecast combina?tion method is applied in this paper to establish the forecast model for warships, which ensures efficient use of equipment funding. As there is a linear correlation among different individual models, the forecast combi?nation model based on Euclidean distance may be poor in performance. Therefore, Mahalanobis distance is proposed as a substitution. Results show that the proposed method, compared with the forecast combination based on Euclidean distance and individual forecast models, is less risky and more reliable.