CAJ | 학술논문

我国小型水库数量众多，但安全状况差，且缺少有效的安全监测，管理水平落后，运行风险大。多年来水库安全鉴定主要以定性评价为主，对病险水库运行风险及其对下游的危害程度缺乏定量的判断。小型水库的运行风险多样，且不确定，不同风险之间往往相互影响、相互依存。以风险的不确定性作为灰色系统，将灰色理论和随机概率分析方法结合，建立功能函数，应用改进的一次二阶矩法把灰色-随机风险概率的计算转化为一般随机风险概率的计算，较好地量化了水库运行风险的不确定性。工程实例表明，计算结果对小型水库除险加固和安全运行具有良好的指导意义。
아국소형수고수량음다，단안전상황차，차결소유효적안전감측，관리수평락후，운행풍험대。다년래수고안전감정주요이정성평개위주，대병험수고운행풍험급기대하유적위해정도결핍정량적판단。소형수고적운행풍험다양，차불학정，불동풍험지간왕왕상호영향、상호의존。이풍험적불학정성작위회색계통，장회색이론화수궤개솔분석방법결합，건립공능함수，응용개진적일차이계구법파회색-수궤풍험개솔적계산전화위일반수궤풍험개솔적계산，교호지양화료수고운행풍험적불학정성。공정실례표명，계산결과대소형수고제험가고화안전운행구유량호적지도의의。
There are a number of small reservoirs in China, but they are in poor security situation w ith the lack of effective secur-ity monitoring and out-of-date management, therefore they have high risk in safe operation. Over the years, the security identifi-cation for reservoirs mainly f ocuses on qualitative evaluation, and the quantitat ive assessment of operation risk and impact on dow nstream properties of dangerous reservoirs are missing. The operation risk of smal reservoirs varies and remains uncertain, and the uncertainty is often interactive and interdependent. In this paper, the uncert ainty of operat ion risk was considered as a grey system, and the grey theory and stochast ic probabilit y method w ere combined to develop the power function. The modified first-order second-moment method can convert the calculation of grey-stochastic probability into the calculation of general sto-chastic probability, which can better quant ify the uncertaint y of operation risk of reservoirs. The case studies of application of the above met hod demonst rate that the calculation can provide good guidance for the safe operat ion and reinforcement of small reservoirs.