CAJ | 학술논문

在不能高精度预测后续洪水的现状下，对历史暴雨洪水信息进行挖掘，对降低水库防洪调度风险具有现实意义。制定将历史洪水标准化的方法，并根据暴雨洪水形成机制和实时信息的易获取性，筛选出能反映洪水特征的指标体系，并基于灰色关联分析原理构建了相似洪水动态识别办法和相似洪水展延实时洪水预报过程的展延效果评价方法。池潭水库历史暴雨洪水模拟结果表明提出的洪水展延方法对后续来水估计的总有效率高，效果显著，该方法应用效果、适应性、稳定性均较好。
재불능고정도예측후속홍수적현상하，대역사폭우홍수신식진행알굴，대강저수고방홍조도풍험구유현실의의。제정장역사홍수표준화적방법，병근거폭우홍수형성궤제화실시신식적역획취성，사선출능반영홍수특정적지표체계，병기우회색관련분석원리구건료상사홍수동태식별판법화상사홍수전연실시홍수예보과정적전연효과평개방법。지담수고역사폭우홍수모의결과표명제출적홍수전연방법대후속래수고계적총유효솔고，효과현저，해방법응용효과、괄응성、은정성균교호。
Under the current conditions that the subsequent flood cannot be predicted w ith high accuracy, the study on the histor-ical storm flood information is important as it may provide valuable information to reduce t he risk of reservoir flood control. In this paper, we developed a met hod to standardize the historical f lood and selected the index system to reflect the flood character-ist ics on t he basis of the formation mechanism of st orm f lood and available real-time information. Based on the gray correlation analysis theory, a dynamic identificat ion approach of similar flood and an evaluation method of the extending effects of real-time flood forecasting process of similar flood were developed. T he methods w ere applied to simulat e the storm flood in the Chitan reservoir, w hich show ed that the flood extending method has high efficiency to est imate the subsequent flood. Overall, the meth-od is applicable, adaptable, and stable.