CAJ | 학술논문

结合实地考察，在产能核算的基础上，建立了以温饱型、小康型、富裕型3种消费水平为标准的耕地资源人口承载力测算方法，并依此方法，科学地测算了福建省2010年、2020年耕地理论、可实现、实际人口承载潜力。结果表明，2010年福建省耕地理论产能可满足该省温饱型、小康型、富裕型粮食消费需求，但可实现、实际产能却均未能达到富裕型人口粮食消费需求；2020年福建省耕地理论人口承载力尚具有一定潜力，但可实现、实际人口承载力均已超载。
결합실지고찰，재산능핵산적기출상，건립료이온포형、소강형、부유형3충소비수평위표준적경지자원인구승재력측산방법，병의차방법，과학지측산료복건성2010년、2020년경지이론、가실현、실제인구승재잠력。결과표명，2010년복건성경지이론산능가만족해성온포형、소강형、부유형양식소비수구，단가실현、실제산능각균미능체도부유형인구양식소비수구；2020년복건성경지이론인구승재력상구유일정잠력，단가실현、실제인구승재력균이초재。
Thispaperconstructed the calculating m ethod ofpopulation carrying capacity by the fieldw ork w hich w asbased on the accounting of production capacity in the three consum ption levels: subsistence, com paratively w ell-off and surplus, and scientifically calculated the theoretical,achievable and actualpopulation carrying capacity of cultivated land of Fujian Province in 2010 and 2020 by this m ethod.The results show ed thatthe theoreticalproduction capacity of Fujian could m eetthe food consum ption dem ands in subsistence,com paratively w ell-offand surplus,butthe achievable and actualproduction capacity can’ tm eetthe food consum ption requires in surplus in 2010.The theoreticalpopulation carrying capacity of Fujian cultivated land stillhas som e potential,butthe achievable and actualpopulation carrying capacity w illbe overloaded in 2020.