CAJ | 학술논문

城镇化进程中保持居民消费需求持续性是提高我国经济增长质量、顺利实现城镇化建设的重要条件，中国经济增长动力之一在于城镇化进程中居民消费的持久性。利用我国1989—2013年的实际经济数据，基于5个经济变量建立结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型，估计出5类冲击在不同时期对我国居民消费需求变动的影响，进一步研究我国居民消费需求的动态演进规律及其内在机理，探讨城镇化进程中如何从5类外部根本冲击出发保持我国居民消费需求的持久性。实证结果表明，正向的个人对未来不确定性预期变化冲击、货币冲击和需求冲击，最终均导致我国居民消费率得到提高，而正向的供给冲击和价格冲击导致我国居民消费率下降。因此，城镇化进程中要充分利用积极冲击对居民消费的正向影响，避免消极冲击对居民消费的负向影响。
성진화진정중보지거민소비수구지속성시제고아국경제증장질량、순리실현성진화건설적중요조건，중국경제증장동력지일재우성진화진정중거민소비적지구성。이용아국1989—2013년적실제경제수거，기우5개경제변량건립결구향량자회귀(SVAR)모형，고계출5류충격재불동시기대아국거민소비수구변동적영향，진일보연구아국거민소비수구적동태연진규률급기내재궤리，탐토성진화진정중여하종5류외부근본충격출발보지아국거민소비수구적지구성。실증결과표명，정향적개인대미래불학정성예기변화충격、화폐충격화수구충격，최종균도치아국거민소비솔득도제고，이정향적공급충격화개격충격도치아국거민소비솔하강。인차，성진화진정중요충분이용적겁충격대거민소비적정향영향，피면소겁충격대거민소비적부향영향。
The persistence of consumer demand in the process of China ’s urbanization is important for the quality of economic growth, and it is the important driving force for China ’s economic growth. In this paper, using data from 1989 to 2013, we establish structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model on the basis of five economic variables, and we use this model to estimate the effects of five types of shock in different periods of changing consumer demands. We further explore the influence of the five types of shocks on the persistence of consumer demand in the process of urbanization. The results show that shocks related to the positive individual expectations of future uncertainties, monetary conditions and demand fluctuations have increased China ’s consumption rate, but the positive shocks related to supply fluctuations and consumer goods prices have decreased China’s consumption rate. Therefore, we suggest that it is important to take full advantage of the positive impacts and to avoid the negative impacts in the process of urbanization.