决策与信息(下旬刊)
決策與信息(下旬刊)
결책여신식(하순간)
THE FRIEND OF THE HEAD
2014年
11期
118-121,124
,共5页
就业结构%优化模型%广义均衡模型
就業結構%優化模型%廣義均衡模型
취업결구%우화모형%엄의균형모형
employment structure%optimization model%general equilibrium model
基于优化理论和广义均衡模型,以2003-2012年中国三大产业就业人员数量和收入,以及对GDP的贡献为基本数据,对我国三大产业的从业人员配置和区域流向进行分析,研究使生产总值最大化的配置方案。首先,采用回归分析给出了三大产业的就业趋势,接下来,建立生产总值的优化模型,并结合matlab软件计算出人员在三大产业中的最优配置,最后,采用广义均衡模型模拟就业岗位在区域间的流动,通过数值分析讨论低端制造业、高级制造业、以及服务业在发达地区和欠发达地区之间的就业流向。研究表明:我国需要遏制务农人员锐减的趋势,在此基础上,通过政策引导和专业培训将失业人口流向至第三产业,同时,由于存在就业流动的均衡状态,需要控制好产业转型的时间范围,避免经济发展超前或滞后的现象,在这段时间内引导低端制造业就业岗位从发达地区流向欠发达地区,高级制造业没有区域流动变化,仍然主要保留在发达地区,服务业所产生的就业岗位则集中于发达地区。
基于優化理論和廣義均衡模型,以2003-2012年中國三大產業就業人員數量和收入,以及對GDP的貢獻為基本數據,對我國三大產業的從業人員配置和區域流嚮進行分析,研究使生產總值最大化的配置方案。首先,採用迴歸分析給齣瞭三大產業的就業趨勢,接下來,建立生產總值的優化模型,併結閤matlab軟件計算齣人員在三大產業中的最優配置,最後,採用廣義均衡模型模擬就業崗位在區域間的流動,通過數值分析討論低耑製造業、高級製造業、以及服務業在髮達地區和欠髮達地區之間的就業流嚮。研究錶明:我國需要遏製務農人員銳減的趨勢,在此基礎上,通過政策引導和專業培訓將失業人口流嚮至第三產業,同時,由于存在就業流動的均衡狀態,需要控製好產業轉型的時間範圍,避免經濟髮展超前或滯後的現象,在這段時間內引導低耑製造業就業崗位從髮達地區流嚮欠髮達地區,高級製造業沒有區域流動變化,仍然主要保留在髮達地區,服務業所產生的就業崗位則集中于髮達地區。
기우우화이론화엄의균형모형,이2003-2012년중국삼대산업취업인원수량화수입,이급대GDP적공헌위기본수거,대아국삼대산업적종업인원배치화구역류향진행분석,연구사생산총치최대화적배치방안。수선,채용회귀분석급출료삼대산업적취업추세,접하래,건립생산총치적우화모형,병결합matlab연건계산출인원재삼대산업중적최우배치,최후,채용엄의균형모형모의취업강위재구역간적류동,통과수치분석토론저단제조업、고급제조업、이급복무업재발체지구화흠발체지구지간적취업류향。연구표명:아국수요알제무농인원예감적추세,재차기출상,통과정책인도화전업배훈장실업인구류향지제삼산업,동시,유우존재취업류동적균형상태,수요공제호산업전형적시간범위,피면경제발전초전혹체후적현상,재저단시간내인도저단제조업취업강위종발체지구류향흠발체지구,고급제조업몰유구역류동변화,잉연주요보류재발체지구,복무업소산생적취업강위칙집중우발체지구。
By using the optimization theory and the equilibrium model, we analysis the personnel allocation of the three major industry and job flow between regions in China based on the personnel quantity and income data of three major industry, and their contribution to GDP between 2003 and 2012. Firstly, we analysis the employment trend of the three major industry by regression analysis, then we establish the optimazition model of GDP and intrduce a computation method with matlab software. Finally, we study the job flow between regions by general equilibrium model, and analysis the job flow of low-end manufacturing industry, advanced manufacturing industry and manufacturing industry between developed and undeveloped regions by numerical analysis. It reveals that in order to improve the GDP of China, the government needs to curb the declining trend in the number of agricultural workers, and lead the unemployed to the third industry through policy guidance and professional training. Because of the existence of equilibrium state in the job flow, the government should adjust to the optimal period in the industry transformation. In this period the government should guide the jobs of low-end manufacturing industry flow from developed regions to less developed regions, the jobs of advanced manufacturing industry stay in the developed area, and the jobs of service industry flow to the developed area. Otherwise the link between economic development and government police would be disjoint, and the regional economy would lag behind.