CAJ | 학술논문

将人工蜂群(ABC)算法应用到中长期电力负荷预测中，通过与组合预测模型相结合，对组合预测目标函数进行优化权重求解。另外针对该算法的早期收敛速度慢、后期容易陷入局部最优的缺点，通过引入扰动项，并进行最坏蜜源替代予以解决。实例分析证明该改进算法收敛速度快，全局寻优能力强。利用它求得的组合预测值，相对于单一模型的预测结果，精度有较大的提高，说明该改进算法应用到中长期电力负荷预测中是可行的。
장인공봉군(ABC)산법응용도중장기전력부하예측중，통과여조합예측모형상결합，대조합예측목표함수진행우화권중구해。령외침대해산법적조기수렴속도만、후기용역함입국부최우적결점，통과인입우동항，병진행최배밀원체대여이해결。실례분석증명해개진산법수렴속도쾌，전국심우능력강。이용타구득적조합예측치，상대우단일모형적예측결과，정도유교대적제고，설명해개진산법응용도중장기전력부하예측중시가행적。
Artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is applied to the medium and long term power load forecasting. Combined with the combination forecasting model, it optimizes the weights of combination prediction in objective function. A disturbing term and worst honey substitution are introduced to overcome the problems of slow convergence speed in the early stage and easy falling to local optimum in the late stage of the existing ABC algorithm. Case analysis shows that the improved method has rapid convergence and strong global optimization. Compared with the forecasting result of single model, the combination forecasting value by using the improved method is more accurate, which shows it is feasible in the medium and long term power load forecasting.