CAJ | 학술논문

土地利用变化是一个受到多重因素相互影响的动态过程。目前，已经成为全球环境变化和可持续发展的重要内容，而区域土地利用空间格局模拟已成为LUCC研究的关键内容。以2000年以及2010年的TM遥感影像解译数据以及数字高程模型、水系、铁路、公路、降雨量和气温等数据为基础，运用二元逻辑斯蒂回归模型对黄土台塬区的土地利用最佳模拟尺度进行了选择，并在此基础上对研究区的各种土地利用进行了空间格局模拟。研究结果显示：（1）在土地利用格局模拟的十个空间尺度上，土地利用变化空间格局与其驱动力因子之间存在着一定的尺度相关性特征；（2）黄土台塬区耕地、林地、草地的ROC值在十个空间尺度上均呈现出先增加后减少的趋势，转折点在400 m尺度附近，说明黄土台塬区的土地利用在尺度效应和尺度转换的效应下，400 m×400 m是此区域土地利用格局优化的最佳模拟尺度；（3）在400 m最佳模拟尺度上所模拟出的草地和林地的分布格局都与人均GDP和地形综合指数两个变量显著相关，而对耕地的分布影响最为明显的变量则是地形综合指数。
토지이용변화시일개수도다중인소상호영향적동태과정。목전，이경성위전구배경변화화가지속발전적중요내용，이구역토지이용공간격국모의이성위LUCC연구적관건내용。이2000년이급2010년적TM요감영상해역수거이급수자고정모형、수계、철로、공로、강우량화기온등수거위기출，운용이원라집사체회귀모형대황토태원구적토지이용최가모의척도진행료선택，병재차기출상대연구구적각충토지이용진행료공간격국모의。연구결과현시：（1）재토지이용격국모의적십개공간척도상，토지이용변화공간격국여기구동력인자지간존재착일정적척도상관성특정；（2）황토태원구경지、임지、초지적ROC치재십개공간척도상균정현출선증가후감소적추세，전절점재400 m척도부근，설명황토태원구적토지이용재척도효응화척도전환적효응하，400 m×400 m시차구역토지이용격국우화적최가모의척도；（3）재400 m최가모의척도상소모의출적초지화임지적분포격국도여인균GDP화지형종합지수량개변량현저상관，이대경지적분포영향최위명현적변량칙시지형종합지수。
Land use change is a dynamic process and it is affected by the interaction of multiple factors. At present, it has become a global environmental change and sustainable development content, while, regional land use spatial pattern has become the key research of LUCC content. Based on the remote sensing image in the year of 2000 and 2010, combined with digital elevation model, water system, railway, highway, rainfall and temperature data, binary logistic regression model is used to select the best analog scale on loess platform areas, and on the basis of it, the land use types of loess platform areas are set to simulate land use spatial pattern. The results indicate:(1)In the land-use pattern of simulated ten spatial scales, the correlation characteristics of land-use changes in spatial pattern and its driving force factor exist between certain scale. (2)The ROC values of three main land use types in ten spatial scales are shown a increasing trend at first, then decreas-ing, and its turning point is 400 m. It indicates that 400 m×400 m is the best analog scale among the effect of scale effect and scale conversion in this area during the land-use pattern optimization of analog scale.(3)In the best analog scale of 400 m, the distribution patterns of grassland and woodland are most significantly with the variables of per capita GDP and terrain composite index. The most obvious impact variable on the distribution of arable land is terrain composite index.