CAJ | 학술논문

利用通辽市七个站53a（1959—2011年）逐日降水量资料进行中等以上降水总量的时空变化特征分析.结果表明，地区平均和各地Rj≥10.0波动性大，而且各地差异较大，共同点是均为减少趋势，其中地区平均和库伦的减少趋势在0.05显著性水平以上，倾向率分别为-13.0mm/10a和-19.0mm/10a，开鲁通过了0.10水平检验，其余地区不明显；各地均符合赫斯特现象，且Hurst指数均大于0.5，预计未来将维持减少趋势，其中大沁他拉Hurst指数最大，未来维持减少趋势较强劲，库伦最小，其余在二者之间；阶段性明显，F值超过了0.001极显著水平，53a经历了多水—少水—多水—少水四个阶段；突变情况各地有较大差异，地区平均在1992年发生了突变，突变前后平均值相差37.8mm，科尔沁发生了两次突变，库伦、保康、鲁北发生了一次突变，其余三地未发生突变；地区平均值有三个周期，最明显周期为52a，次周期为4.33a，三周期对应2.17a.
이용통료시칠개참53a（1959—2011년）축일강수량자료진행중등이상강수총량적시공변화특정분석.결과표명，지구평균화각지Rj≥10.0파동성대，이차각지차이교대，공동점시균위감소추세，기중지구평균화고륜적감소추세재0.05현저성수평이상，경향솔분별위-13.0mm/10a화-19.0mm/10a，개로통과료0.10수평검험，기여지구불명현；각지균부합혁사특현상，차Hurst지수균대우0.5，예계미래장유지감소추세，기중대심타랍Hurst지수최대，미래유지감소추세교강경，고륜최소，기여재이자지간；계단성명현，F치초과료0.001겁현저수평，53a경력료다수—소수—다수—소수사개계단；돌변정황각지유교대차이，지구평균재1992년발생료돌변，돌변전후평균치상차37.8mm，과이심발생료량차돌변，고륜、보강、로북발생료일차돌변，기여삼지미발생돌변；지구평균치유삼개주기，최명현주기위52a，차주기위4.33a，삼주기대응2.17a.
Based on the daily precipitation data collected from seven stations in the Tongliao during 1959-2011 years, the spatial and temporal patterns of above medium precipitation were analyzed. The results show that the Rj≥10.0 of average and around area were large fluctuations and have a decreasing trend in common. The decreased tendency of the regional average and Kulun was above the significance level of 0.05, the tendency rate of them was-13.0mm/10a and-19.0mm/10a respectively. The test level of all regions was not obvious except Kailu which was above 0.10. All stations were in accordance with Hurst phenomenon, and Hurst index was greater than 0.5, which was expected to remain a decreasing trend. Among these stations, the Hurst index of Daqintala is the largest, which will maintain a relavively strong reducing trend in future, and the Hurst index of kulun is the minimum. The results have revealed that they have apparent phases, and F value was above the 0.001 significant level. They have undergone four stages of much water-less water-much water-less water among 53a. The mutations of each station have bigger differences. The regional average’s mutation occurred in 1992, The difference of average value after the mutation is 37.8mm. Two mutations happened in Horqin . A mutation occured in Kullen, BaoKang and Lubei. The remaining three stations haven’t occured. There are three cycles in regional average.The most obvious one is 52a;the second is 4.33a and the third is 2.17a.