南水北调与水利科技
南水北調與水利科技
남수북조여수리과기
SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER
2014年
1期
47-49,81
,共4页
水资源%系统动力学%供需平衡%二次平衡分析
水資源%繫統動力學%供需平衡%二次平衡分析
수자원%계통동역학%공수평형%이차평형분석
w ater resources%system dynamics%supply and demand balance%second time balance analysis
根据江苏省的水资源现状,采取系统动力学仿真模拟方法对2020年和2030年50%、75%、95%保证率下全省水资源供需水进行预测,在此基础上分别进行基于现状供水能力的一次供需平衡分析以及提高供水能力和节水措施下的二次供需平衡分析。结果表明,一次供需平衡分析时,供需缺口很大；二次供需平衡分析时,供需矛盾得到很大程度的改善,2020年50%保证率下供需缺口降低49.70%,2030年50%保证率下供需缺口降低47.43%。
根據江囌省的水資源現狀,採取繫統動力學倣真模擬方法對2020年和2030年50%、75%、95%保證率下全省水資源供需水進行預測,在此基礎上分彆進行基于現狀供水能力的一次供需平衡分析以及提高供水能力和節水措施下的二次供需平衡分析。結果錶明,一次供需平衡分析時,供需缺口很大；二次供需平衡分析時,供需矛盾得到很大程度的改善,2020年50%保證率下供需缺口降低49.70%,2030年50%保證率下供需缺口降低47.43%。
근거강소성적수자원현상,채취계통동역학방진모의방법대2020년화2030년50%、75%、95%보증솔하전성수자원공수수진행예측,재차기출상분별진행기우현상공수능력적일차공수평형분석이급제고공수능력화절수조시하적이차공수평형분석。결과표명,일차공수평형분석시,공수결구흔대；이차공수평형분석시,공수모순득도흔대정도적개선,2020년50%보증솔하공수결구강저49.70%,2030년50%보증솔하공수결구강저47.43%。
According to the present wat er resources condit ions of Jiangsu Province, system dynamics simulation method w as used t o predict the water resources supply and demand balance in Jiangsu Province in 2020 and 2030 level year under different guarantee rates ( 50% , 75% , and 95% ) . On the basis, the first t ime supply and demand balance analysis of w ater resources w as performed under the current conditions, and the second time supply and demand balance analysis of water resources w as per-formed under the condit ions of improved wat er supply capacity and wat er saving measures. The results show ed insufficiency for the first time supply and demand balance analysis of w ater resources, and that the imbalance betw een supply and demand im-proves for the second time supply and demand balance analysis of water resources. The insufficiency can decrease 49. 70% under the guarantee rate of 50% in 2020, and decrease 47. 43% under the guarantee rate of 50% in 2030.
