CAJ | 학술논문

SWAT 模型是流域尺度的分布式水文模型，可以在流域尺度上定量评估气候变化和土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应。利用率定的 SWAT 模型，结合情景分析方法，定量分析了古浪河流域气候变化和土地利用/覆被变化对蒸散发、地表径流等水循环要素的影响。结果表明：降水和气温的改变是引起蒸散发和地表径流变化的重要因素，降水对地表径流的影响更大，气温对蒸散发的影响更大，且均表现出明显的季节性差异；土地利用/覆被变化也会引起蒸散发和地表径流的变化，林地和草地的增加会增加蒸散发和减少地表径流，耕地的增加则会减少蒸散发、增加地表径流，农村居民点或裸地的增加将会显著增加蒸散发和地表径流。
SWAT 모형시류역척도적분포식수문모형，가이재류역척도상정량평고기후변화화토지이용/복피변화적수문효응。이용솔정적 SWAT 모형，결합정경분석방법，정량분석료고랑하류역기후변화화토지이용/복피변화대증산발、지표경류등수순배요소적영향。결과표명：강수화기온적개변시인기증산발화지표경류변화적중요인소，강수대지표경류적영향경대，기온대증산발적영향경대，차균표현출명현적계절성차이；토지이용/복피변화야회인기증산발화지표경류적변화，임지화초지적증가회증가증산발화감소지표경류，경지적증가칙회감소증산발、증가지표경류，농촌거민점혹라지적증가장회현저증가증산발화지표경류。
Assessment of climate change and land use/ cover changes ( LUCC) on hydrological processes is essent ial for the sus-tainable development of w ater resources, especial y in t he arid/ semi-arid regions w ith limited w ater supplies. T he Soil and Water Assessment Tool ( SWAT) w as used as a distributed hydrological model to quantify the effects of climat e change and LUCC on seasonal variation of surface runoff and evapot ranspiration in the Gulang River basin. The results suggested that t he variation of precipitation and t em perat ure is the major reason for the variation of evapotranspirat ion and surface runoff. Surface runoff is more sensitive t o precipitation than temperature w hereas temperature has a greater impact on evapotranspiration w ith an obvi-ous seasonal variation. Moreover, LUCC can result in the variation of evapotranspiration and surface runoff as w el . T he increas-ing of forest or grass land can increase evapotranspiration but decrease surface runoff, the increasing of agricultural land can de-crease evapot ranspiration and surface runoff, and the increasing of rural residential area or bare land can increase both evapo-transpiration and surface runoff significantly.