上海海事大学学报
上海海事大學學報
상해해사대학학보
JOURNAL OF SHANGHAI MARITIME UNIVERSITY
2014年
4期
20-25
,共6页
网格化管理%风险预警模型%层次分析法(AHP)%反向传播神经网络(BPNN)
網格化管理%風險預警模型%層次分析法(AHP)%反嚮傳播神經網絡(BPNN)
망격화관리%풍험예경모형%층차분석법(AHP)%반향전파신경망락(BPNN)
grid management%risk early-warning model%Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP )%Back-Propagation Neural Network (BPNN)
为解决现阶段海事网格化管理的风险评价局限于网格划分过程、评价方法单一、可靠性低的问题，以系统工程和网格化管理的理论和方法为基础，基于层次分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Process，AHP）和反向传播神经网络（BackPropagation Neural Network，BPNN），建立海事网格风险预警模型。首先，对海事网格风险影响因素进行分析，建立风险评价指标体系；然后，运用AHP界定各海事网格风险等级，再运用BPNN预测未来周期网格的风险等级；最后，综合上述两种方法的风险评估结果，确立海事网格风险预警等级。模型增加了海事网格风险预警的可靠性和准确性，可为海事部门提供风险控制的信息支撑，提升网格化管理的效果。
為解決現階段海事網格化管理的風險評價跼限于網格劃分過程、評價方法單一、可靠性低的問題，以繫統工程和網格化管理的理論和方法為基礎，基于層次分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Process，AHP）和反嚮傳播神經網絡（BackPropagation Neural Network，BPNN），建立海事網格風險預警模型。首先，對海事網格風險影響因素進行分析，建立風險評價指標體繫；然後，運用AHP界定各海事網格風險等級，再運用BPNN預測未來週期網格的風險等級；最後，綜閤上述兩種方法的風險評估結果，確立海事網格風險預警等級。模型增加瞭海事網格風險預警的可靠性和準確性，可為海事部門提供風險控製的信息支撐，提升網格化管理的效果。
위해결현계단해사망격화관리적풍험평개국한우망격화분과정、평개방법단일、가고성저적문제，이계통공정화망격화관리적이론화방법위기출，기우층차분석법（Analytic Hierarchy Process，AHP）화반향전파신경망락（BackPropagation Neural Network，BPNN），건립해사망격풍험예경모형。수선，대해사망격풍험영향인소진행분석，건립풍험평개지표체계；연후，운용AHP계정각해사망격풍험등급，재운용BPNN예측미래주기망격적풍험등급；최후，종합상술량충방법적풍험평고결과，학립해사망격풍험예경등급。모형증가료해사망격풍험예경적가고성화준학성，가위해사부문제공풍험공제적신식지탱，제승망격화관리적효과。
To solve the problem that the risk evaluation of present maritime grid management is limited to the meshing process,the single evaluation method and the low reliability,a maritime grid risk early-warning model is established based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP),BackPropagation Neural Net-work (BPNN),and the theories and methods of system engineering and grid management. First,the maritime grid risk influencing factors are analyzed to establish a risk evaluation index system. Second, the risk level of each maritime grid is defined by AHP,and the future periodic grid risk level is predicted by BPNN. Finally,the risk early-warning level of maritime grid is determined by combining the risk eval-uation results of the above two methods. The model increases the reliability and accuracy of maritime grid risk early-warning. It can provide information support for risk control of the maritime department and en-hance the effect of grid management.
