CAJ | 학술논문

基于三维不对称Gumbel Copula函数构建了洪峰、时段洪量联合分布，探讨了洪峰和时段洪量之间的概率特性。首先建立了洪峰、3 d洪量和7 d洪量的三维不对称Gumbel Copula联合分布函数，然后运用极大似然法估计了三维Gumbel Copula函数的参数，最后求得洪峰和时段洪量之间的条件概率分布，分析了洪峰、洪量间的概率特性。以大渡河流域大金川站1960—2013年间的洪峰、3 d洪量和7 d洪量为例进行了应用。研究成果为洪峰、洪量相关关系的研究提供了新途径。
기우삼유불대칭Gumbel Copula함수구건료홍봉、시단홍량연합분포，탐토료홍봉화시단홍량지간적개솔특성。수선건립료홍봉、3 d홍량화7 d홍량적삼유불대칭Gumbel Copula연합분포함수，연후운용겁대사연법고계료삼유Gumbel Copula함수적삼수，최후구득홍봉화시단홍량지간적조건개솔분포，분석료홍봉、홍량간적개솔특성。이대도하류역대금천참1960—2013년간적홍봉、3 d홍량화7 d홍량위례진행료응용。연구성과위홍봉、홍량상관관계적연구제공료신도경。
In this paper, the joint probability distribution of flood peak and period flood volume was constructed based on three-dimensional asymmetric Copula function.And the probabilistic characteristics between the flood peak and period flood volume were discussed by joint probability distribution..First, the joint probability distribution of flood peak, 3 days flood volume and 7 days flood volume was established based on the three-dimensional asymmetric Gumbel Copula function, and then maximum likelihood method was used to estimate the parameters of the three-dimensional asymmetric Gumbel Copula function, finally the conditional probability distribution between flood peak and period flood volume was deduced and the probabilistic characteristics between the flood peak and volume were analyzed.This method was applied in the Dadu River using flood peak, 3 days flood volume and 7 days flood volume datas(1960—2013) from the Dajinchuan hydrological station.These results will provide a new approach for the study of correlation between flood peak and flood volume.