CAJ | 학술논문

在分析了大坝变形多种影响因素及其影响特征的基础上，利用结合多层递阶方法与多元回归分析方法建立了多因素时变监控模型，根据安康大坝表孔、中孔坝段的变形观测数据，建立了安康大坝变形预测模型。分析表明：多因素时变监控模型较多元回归分析方法具有更高的准确性，可以显著提高大坝变形预报精度。
재분석료대패변형다충영향인소급기영향특정적기출상，이용결합다층체계방법여다원회귀분석방법건립료다인소시변감공모형，근거안강대패표공、중공패단적변형관측수거，건립료안강대패변형예측모형。분석표명：다인소시변감공모형교다원회귀분석방법구유경고적준학성，가이현저제고대패변형예보정도。
Based on the analyses of the influencing factors and influencing characteristics of dam deformation, a multiple factor time-varying model is set up by combining the multilayer hierarchical analysis method and regression analysis method. The deformation monitoring data of surface spillway and middle orifices of Ankang Dam are used to set up the prediction model of deformation. The analysis results show that the multiple factors time-varying method is more accurate than regression analysis method, and can significantly improve prediction accuracy of dam deformation.