水力发电
水力髮電
수력발전
WATER POWER
2014年
12期
12-15
,共4页
郝振纯%杜一衡%鞠琴%鲁承阳
郝振純%杜一衡%鞠琴%魯承暘
학진순%두일형%국금%로승양
预报%封河日期%开河日期%黄河源区%多元线性回归法%人工神经网络法
預報%封河日期%開河日期%黃河源區%多元線性迴歸法%人工神經網絡法
예보%봉하일기%개하일기%황하원구%다원선성회귀법%인공신경망락법
forecast%date of freeze-up%date of break-up%source region of Yellow River%multiple linear regression method%artificial neural network method
研究黄河源区封开河日期的预报模型，对于填补黄河源区凌情研究的空白，进一步了解气候变化对源区径流过程的影响十分重要。根据黄河源区的水文、气象资料，从热力因素、水力因素和河道条件等方面筛选了影响河流凌情演变的主要因子，选用多元线性回归法和人工神经网络法对封河日期和开河日期进行了预测，并对预测结果进行了对比分析，初步建立起具有一定精度的黄河源区河冰封开河预报模型。
研究黃河源區封開河日期的預報模型，對于填補黃河源區凌情研究的空白，進一步瞭解氣候變化對源區徑流過程的影響十分重要。根據黃河源區的水文、氣象資料，從熱力因素、水力因素和河道條件等方麵篩選瞭影響河流凌情縯變的主要因子，選用多元線性迴歸法和人工神經網絡法對封河日期和開河日期進行瞭預測，併對預測結果進行瞭對比分析，初步建立起具有一定精度的黃河源區河冰封開河預報模型。
연구황하원구봉개하일기적예보모형，대우전보황하원구릉정연구적공백，진일보료해기후변화대원구경류과정적영향십분중요。근거황하원구적수문、기상자료，종열력인소、수력인소화하도조건등방면사선료영향하류릉정연변적주요인자，선용다원선성회귀법화인공신경망락법대봉하일기화개하일기진행료예측，병대예측결과진행료대비분석，초보건립기구유일정정도적황하원구하빙봉개하예보모형。
The study on forecast model of freeze-up and break-up date is significant important to understand the ice-slush in the source region of Yellow River and the impacts of climate changes on runoff process of Yellow River source area. Based on the hydrological data and weather data of source region of Yellow River, the main factors which affecting river ice-slush evolution are selected from various factors of thermal, hydraulic and river channel conditions, and then the dates of freeze-up and break-up are forecasted by using multiple linear regression and artificial neural network methods. The forecast results are also compared. The ice forecast of freeze-up and break-up model is initially set up for the source region of Yellow River.
