CAJ | 학술논문

近年来随着云南省经济的不断发展，特别是“桥头堡”战略的提出和实施，地处云南省东南部的红河州由于其特殊的地理位置成为了我国西南发展对外贸易经济的重要通道。本文在对红河州农产品物流发展现状进行简要阐述的基础上，选取红河州2002—2011年间农林牧渔业产值、社会消费品零售总额、农业机械总动力、农民人均纯收入、全州贸易进出口总额、固定资产投资六个影响红河州农产品物流需求的因素，运用SPSS软件建立多元回归模型对红河州2012—2014年农产品物流需求进行了预测分析，其研究结果可以为红河州农产品物流今后的发展提供一定的参考。
근년래수착운남성경제적불단발전，특별시“교두보”전략적제출화실시，지처운남성동남부적홍하주유우기특수적지리위치성위료아국서남발전대외무역경제적중요통도。본문재대홍하주농산품물류발전현상진행간요천술적기출상，선취홍하주2002—2011년간농림목어업산치、사회소비품령수총액、농업궤계총동력、농민인균순수입、전주무역진출구총액、고정자산투자륙개영향홍하주농산품물류수구적인소，운용SPSS연건건립다원회귀모형대홍하주2012—2014년농산품물류수구진행료예측분석，기연구결과가이위홍하주농산품물류금후적발전제공일정적삼고。
In recent years, with the continues development of economy in Yunnan Province, especially with the proposal and implementation of"bridgehead"strategy, Honghe Prefecture becomes an important channel of de-velopment in foreign trade and economy in Southwest China because of its special location. This paper briefly ex-pounds the status quo of development in agricultural products logistics in Honghe Prefecture. By choosing the gross output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, social retail goods, total power of agricul-tural machinery, the per capita net income of farmers, total value of the imports and exports, and investment in fixed assets, among six influencing factors for Honghe Prefecture from 2002 to 2011, we use SPSS to establish a multiple regression model for forecasting logistics demands for agricultural products from 2012 to 2014. The re-sults can provide a reference for the development of agricultural products logistics in Honghe Prefecture.