人民长江
人民長江
인민장강
YANGTZE RIVER
2014年
23期
39-42
,共4页
风险决策%k -可加模糊测度%Choquet积分%指标解耦%施工导流
風險決策%k -可加模糊測度%Choquet積分%指標解耦%施工導流
풍험결책%k -가가모호측도%Choquet적분%지표해우%시공도류
risk decision%k-additive fuzzy measures%Choquet integration%indexes decoupling%construction diversion
水利水电工程导流方案优选是多目标决策问题，其常用决策指标均与导流风险相关，因此决策指标相关性的分析与解耦是保证决策正确合理的关键性问题。分析并量化各导流风险决策指标，以k -可加模糊测度表示并解耦指标间的关联性，根据最大模糊测度熵原则求解决策指标和指标集的权重，结合Choquet积分计算方案的综合评价值，对导流方案进行排序优选。实例分析表明，该方法能合理表达投资、工期及风险损失等决策指标间的关联性，提高决策准确性，为水利水电工程导流方案优选提供了有效方法。
水利水電工程導流方案優選是多目標決策問題，其常用決策指標均與導流風險相關，因此決策指標相關性的分析與解耦是保證決策正確閤理的關鍵性問題。分析併量化各導流風險決策指標，以k -可加模糊測度錶示併解耦指標間的關聯性，根據最大模糊測度熵原則求解決策指標和指標集的權重，結閤Choquet積分計算方案的綜閤評價值，對導流方案進行排序優選。實例分析錶明，該方法能閤理錶達投資、工期及風險損失等決策指標間的關聯性，提高決策準確性，為水利水電工程導流方案優選提供瞭有效方法。
수이수전공정도류방안우선시다목표결책문제，기상용결책지표균여도류풍험상관，인차결책지표상관성적분석여해우시보증결책정학합리적관건성문제。분석병양화각도류풍험결책지표，이k -가가모호측도표시병해우지표간적관련성，근거최대모호측도적원칙구해결책지표화지표집적권중，결합Choquet적분계산방안적종합평개치，대도류방안진행배서우선。실례분석표명，해방법능합리표체투자、공기급풍험손실등결책지표간적관련성，제고결책준학성，위수이수전공정도류방안우선제공료유효방법。
The diversion scheme decision of hydropower project is a multi-objective decision-making issue, in which the commonly used decision-making indexes are always related with diversion risk, so correlation analysis and decoupling for the de-cision indexes are key issues to ensure correct scheme decision. The relevance of the decision indexes was characterized and de-coupled with k-additive fuzzy measures on the basis of analyzing and quantizing different indexes, and the weights of indexes were determined according to maximum fuzzy measure entropy principle. Finally, the diversion schemes were ranked and optimal scheme was selected according to synthetic appraisal value given by Choquet integration. The case study shows that this method is effective for characterizing the relevance of the indexes such as construction investment, construction period and dynamic risk ra-tionally and enhancing the decision-making veracity.
