科技管理研究
科技管理研究
과기관리연구
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT RESEARCH
2014年
23期
137-143
,共7页
航空制造业%可计算一般均衡模型%进口替代%出口导向
航空製造業%可計算一般均衡模型%進口替代%齣口導嚮
항공제조업%가계산일반균형모형%진구체대%출구도향
aircraft manufacturing industry%computable general equilibrium model%import substitution%export orienta-tion
构建上海地区航空产业的可计算一般均衡模型，通过闭合方式的选择使得要素内生，研究分析航空制造业需求增加带来的经济效应和要素流动，为产业有序发展提供依据。结果表明：进口替代与出口导向都有利于本地航空制造业快速成长，并通过产业关联作用于经济增长；产业发展同时提供了大量就业机会以及投资需求，刺激了当地消费，有助于形成持续的经济增长动力；在产业层面上，航空制造业发展有利于第一产业和第三产业增长，对第二产业的带动效应偏弱，尤其在重型工业方面。
構建上海地區航空產業的可計算一般均衡模型，通過閉閤方式的選擇使得要素內生，研究分析航空製造業需求增加帶來的經濟效應和要素流動，為產業有序髮展提供依據。結果錶明：進口替代與齣口導嚮都有利于本地航空製造業快速成長，併通過產業關聯作用于經濟增長；產業髮展同時提供瞭大量就業機會以及投資需求，刺激瞭噹地消費，有助于形成持續的經濟增長動力；在產業層麵上，航空製造業髮展有利于第一產業和第三產業增長，對第二產業的帶動效應偏弱，尤其在重型工業方麵。
구건상해지구항공산업적가계산일반균형모형，통과폐합방식적선택사득요소내생，연구분석항공제조업수구증가대래적경제효응화요소류동，위산업유서발전제공의거。결과표명：진구체대여출구도향도유리우본지항공제조업쾌속성장，병통과산업관련작용우경제증장；산업발전동시제공료대량취업궤회이급투자수구，자격료당지소비，유조우형성지속적경제증장동력；재산업층면상，항공제조업발전유리우제일산업화제삼산업증장，대제이산업적대동효응편약，우기재중형공업방면。
The paper built a computable general equilibrium model,in which factor variables could be endogenous in certain closure condition,and studied the economic effects and factor allocation induced by demand pulls so as to provide the basis for orderly development of the aircraft manufacturing industry in Shanghai.Simulation results indicated that,air-craft manufacturing industry would get rapid growth by the import substitution or export orientation strategy;the local e-conomy could also be benefited through the industrial association.Meanwhile the industrial development offered a large number of employment opportunities and financial needs,which stimulated the native consumption and contribute to the formation of sustainable economic growth.At the industry level,the expansion of aircraft manufacturing industry was con-ducive to the primary industry and tertiary industry,but it had weak driving effect on the secondary industry,especially in heavy industry.
