中国环境管理干部学院学报
中國環境管理榦部學院學報
중국배경관리간부학원학보
JOURNAL OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT COLLEGE OF CHINA
2014年
6期
55-58
,共4页
GDP%二氧化硫新增量%宏观测算%排污系数法%年均增长率
GDP%二氧化硫新增量%宏觀測算%排汙繫數法%年均增長率
GDP%이양화류신증량%굉관측산%배오계수법%년균증장솔
GDP%sulfur dioxide%a new incremental%macroscopic calculation%sewage coeffic-ient method%the average annual growth rate
根据《“十二五”主要污染物总量控制规划编制技术指南》提供的公式，预测社会经济发展主要参数，包括GDP、能源消费总量、煤炭消费量等指标。二氧化硫新增量预测以宏观测算方法为主，并按行业测算方法予以校核。宏观测算分为火电行业和非电力行业，结果为1.419万t；分行业预测分为石化、建材（水泥）、有色、冶金和其他行业，结果为1.774万t，两者预测偏差为25%，采用分行业预测结果作为2015年二氧化硫新增量预测。
根據《“十二五”主要汙染物總量控製規劃編製技術指南》提供的公式，預測社會經濟髮展主要參數，包括GDP、能源消費總量、煤炭消費量等指標。二氧化硫新增量預測以宏觀測算方法為主，併按行業測算方法予以校覈。宏觀測算分為火電行業和非電力行業，結果為1.419萬t；分行業預測分為石化、建材（水泥）、有色、冶金和其他行業，結果為1.774萬t，兩者預測偏差為25%，採用分行業預測結果作為2015年二氧化硫新增量預測。
근거《“십이오”주요오염물총량공제규화편제기술지남》제공적공식，예측사회경제발전주요삼수，포괄GDP、능원소비총량、매탄소비량등지표。이양화류신증량예측이굉관측산방법위주，병안행업측산방법여이교핵。굉관측산분위화전행업화비전역행업，결과위1.419만t；분행업예측분위석화、건재（수니）、유색、야금화기타행업，결과위1.774만t，량자예측편차위25%，채용분행업예측결과작위2015년이양화류신증량예측。
According to the formula supplied by Technical Guide of Controlling the Total Amount of Major Populants in the 12th Five-year Plan, forcasted the main parameters of the social development, including GDP, tatal energy consumed, coal consumption, etc. Macro-method should be applied to measure the new increment of sulfur dioxide, the results should be checked according to the measurement methods in different industries. Macro-forecast can be divided into thermal power industry and non-electrinic power industry, the result is 14 190 t. Forecasting by industries can be devided into petrifaction, building materials ( cement) , non-ferrous matals, metallurgy and so on, the result is 17 740 t. The deviation between them is 25%. The result of forecasting by industries was taken as the new increment of sulfur dioxide in 2015.
