CAJ | 학술논문

2013年金价下跌是长期上涨调整的需要，美国量化宽松货币政策调整、投资银行看空、对冲基金和投资机构集中抛售是造成金价大幅下跌的主要原因。未来金价上涨阻力不容忽视，美国货币政策调整不利于金价上涨，投资机构看空情况下的黄金市场难有好的表现，避险作用削弱情况下地缘政治不会推动金价大幅上涨，黄金市场已经进入熊市。黄金生产成本难以支撑进入熊市的金价上涨，强势美元促使金价走低。未来金价不会呈“V”型或“L”型走势，有可能跌破1000美元／盎司，并有可能随着美元不断加息走强而持续走低。
2013년금개하질시장기상창조정적수요，미국양화관송화폐정책조정、투자은행간공、대충기금화투자궤구집중포수시조성금개대폭하질적주요원인。미래금개상창조력불용홀시，미국화폐정책조정불리우금개상창，투자궤구간공정황하적황금시장난유호적표현，피험작용삭약정황하지연정치불회추동금개대폭상창，황금시장이경진입웅시。황금생산성본난이지탱진입웅시적금개상창，강세미원촉사금개주저。미래금개불회정“V”형혹“L”형주세，유가능질파1000미원／앙사，병유가능수착미원불단가식주강이지속주저。
Price fall of gold in 2013 is the result of adjustment after a long term rise .Quantitative easing , short view of investment banks ,hedging funds and sell-off of gold by institutional investment are the main reasons for the fall.The obstructing factors lying ahead for gold price rise are not to be ignored .The adjustment of currency policy in U.S.,the short expectations of institutions hinder price rise while geopolitics under weakened risk evasion conditions is incapable in pushing up gold prices ,all of which indicate a bear market for gold .Gold production cost can not contrib-ute to gold price rise in a bear market and a robust U .S.Dollar takes advantage over gold .Future gold price will not follow a"V"or"L"trend and will probably fall below 1 000 dollars per ounce ,and is likely to go lower with the ris-ing interest rate of dollars .