CAJ | 학술논문

为对软件的过时淘汰进行科学决策，依据软件的固有特性，提出软件过时淘汰的理念并给出相关定义；分析软件过时淘汰机理，提出软件过时淘汰的主要影响属性，依据模糊贝叶斯网络和抽样分布的思想对主要影响属性进行模糊化处理，消除主观因素的影响并获得所有属性变量之间的条件互信息和最大权重有向树；推理模糊先验概率估计和条件概率估计，归纳参数学习方法。通过案例验证了模型的建立与推理方法，其结果表明该模型具有可信性和有效性。
위대연건적과시도태진행과학결책，의거연건적고유특성，제출연건과시도태적이념병급출상관정의；분석연건과시도태궤리，제출연건과시도태적주요영향속성，의거모호패협사망락화추양분포적사상대주요영향속성진행모호화처리，소제주관인소적영향병획득소유속성변량지간적조건호신식화최대권중유향수；추리모호선험개솔고계화조건개솔고계，귀납삼수학습방법。통과안례험증료모형적건립여추리방법，기결과표명해모형구유가신성화유효성。
For the sake of making scientific decision on software obsolescence ,the concept and definition of software obsolescence based on the intrinsic characteristic of software were pointed out ,the software obsolescence mechanism was analyzed and the main influencing attributes of software obsolescence were pointed out ,the main influencing attributes based on the thought of fuzzy Bayesian network and sample distribution were blurred ,the subjective influence factors were eliminated and the condition mutual information and the maximum weight directed tree among all the attribute variables were obtained ,the fuzzy prior proba‐bility and contingent probability were reasoned and the parameter learning method was concluded ,the foundation and reasoning method was validated by the help of the example finally .The result shows that the model is believable and effective .