CAJ | 학술논문

利用1961—2013年 NCEP／NCAR 发布的月平均全球再分析资料，分析了欧亚北部（40°—65°N，50°—120°E）2004年以来频繁冷冬的异常特征及形成机理。结果表明：欧亚北部2004年以来冷冬频繁发生，但温度异常的空间分布，尤其中心冷区的位置有显著差异，主要表现为全区偏冷型（2005、2009、2010、2012年）和南部偏冷型（2004、2007、2011年）。全区偏冷年主要由北极涛动（AO）显著负位相所致，对应海表温度特征为北大西洋高、中、低纬度成东北—西南走向的“＋、－、＋”带状分布，该分布有利于北极涛动／北大西洋涛动（AO／NAO）负位相维持和增强；南部偏冷年大气内部活动异常为乌拉尔—贝加尔湖阻塞高压偏强，北极涛动／北大西洋涛动以弱正位相为主，对应主要海表温度特征为北大西洋中部偏高，其次则为太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）负位相下“类拉尼娜事件”，上述海表温度异常均可促进类似欧亚遥相关的罗斯贝波列形成，有利于乌拉尔—贝加尔湖阻塞高压偏强、亚洲中部多低槽活动。2004年以来欧亚北部两种类型冷冬的大气环流与海表温度均表现出与历史典型年相类似的特征。
이용1961—2013년 NCEP／NCAR 발포적월평균전구재분석자료，분석료구아북부（40°—65°N，50°—120°E）2004년이래빈번냉동적이상특정급형성궤리。결과표명：구아북부2004년이래냉동빈번발생，단온도이상적공간분포，우기중심랭구적위치유현저차이，주요표현위전구편랭형（2005、2009、2010、2012년）화남부편랭형（2004、2007、2011년）。전구편랭년주요유북겁도동（AO）현저부위상소치，대응해표온도특정위북대서양고、중、저위도성동북—서남주향적“＋、－、＋”대상분포，해분포유리우북겁도동／북대서양도동（AO／NAO）부위상유지화증강；남부편랭년대기내부활동이상위오랍이—패가이호조새고압편강，북겁도동／북대서양도동이약정위상위주，대응주요해표온도특정위북대서양중부편고，기차칙위태평양년대제진탕（PDO）부위상하“류랍니나사건”，상술해표온도이상균가촉진유사구아요상관적라사패파렬형성，유리우오랍이—패가이호조새고압편강、아주중부다저조활동。2004년이래구아북부량충류형냉동적대기배류여해표온도균표현출여역사전형년상유사적특정。
By using the monthly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets of 1961 -2013,anomalous features and potential causes of the frequent cooling winter in northern Eurasia (40°-65°N,50°-120°E)since 2004 are analyzed in this paper.The results show that:Cooling winters took place frequently in northern Eurasia since 2004,but there is a notable difference in the distriˉ bution of temperature anomalies,especially the cold center position.It shows that 2005,2009,2010 and 2012 appear as wholeˉ regionˉcolder years,while 2004,2007 and 2011 as southˉregionˉcolder years.The wholeˉregionˉcolder years are mainly caused by the significant negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO),and the corresponding SST features are zonally distributed with a NortheastˉSouthwest “positiveˉnegativeˉpositive”pattern from high latitudes,middle latitudes to low latitudes in the North Atlantic,which is beneficial to continuous negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO).While southˉregionˉcolder ones were caused by the enhanced UralˉBaikal (UB)blocking with the AO/NAO generally in the weak positive phase,which mainly corresponds to the warm SST in the middle latitudes of the North Atlantic,and secondly to “similar La Ni~na events”under the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)negative phase.Both of the SST anomalies above can accelerate the Rossby waves which is similar to the Eurasian Teleconnections pattern and is helpful to enhanced UB blocking and trough activities in central Aisa.Either in the circulation or SST anomalies,the two types of cooling winters in northern Eurasia since 2004 are similar to the corresponding typical years in history.