CAJ | 학술논문

基于对中国东部夏季降水与欧亚大陆土壤温度和全球海表温度的相关分析，选取不同关键区的土壤温度和海表温度作为夏季降水的预测因子。利用1961—1990年的资料，分别以土壤温度作为第1组预测因子，海表温度作为第2组预测因子，综合海表温度与土壤温度因子作为第3组预测因子，使用改进的典型相关分析和集合典型相关分析法对中国东部夏季降水场进行预测，建立了相应的预测模型。然后，利用1991—2010年的资料进行了独立样本预测试验。在独立样本预测试验中，综合海表温度与土壤温度因子建立的模型比只用海表温度进行预测的各项预测评分高，说明加入土壤温度因子后预测效果有所提高。基于陆面热力因子的预测模型对夏季降水有一定的技巧，而综合海温与陆面热力因子的预测模型对中国东部夏季降水有较高的预测能力。
기우대중국동부하계강수여구아대륙토양온도화전구해표온도적상관분석，선취불동관건구적토양온도화해표온도작위하계강수적예측인자。이용1961—1990년적자료，분별이토양온도작위제1조예측인자，해표온도작위제2조예측인자，종합해표온도여토양온도인자작위제3조예측인자，사용개진적전형상관분석화집합전형상관분석법대중국동부하계강수장진행예측，건립료상응적예측모형。연후，이용1991—2010년적자료진행료독립양본예측시험。재독립양본예측시험중，종합해표온도여토양온도인자건립적모형비지용해표온도진행예측적각항예측평분고，설명가입토양온도인자후예측효과유소제고。기우륙면열력인자적예측모형대하계강수유일정적기교，이종합해온여륙면열력인자적예측모형대중국동부하계강수유교고적예측능력。
Based on the correlation analysis between the April soil temperature (ST)over the Eurasian continent,the global sea surface temperature (SST)in the previous winter and the summer precipitation in eastern China,STs and SSTs over the key regions are selected as the predictors of the summer rainfall prediction.Based on the observations during the period 1961 -1990,the BarnettˉPreisendorfer canonical correlation analysis (BPˉCCA)and the ensemble canonical correlation analysis (ECC) are used to build statistical prediction models of the summer rainfall in eastern China with taking ST,SST or SST combined with ST as the predictors,respectively.The independent sample test is performed by using the observations during 1991 -2010.The results show that the model using SST combined with ST as predictor exhibits higher predictive skill than that only using one of them,implying that consideration of the ST improves the performance of the prediction model.The prediction model based on the land surface thermal factors has some skills in predicting the summer precipitation in eastern China,and the way using the combination of SST with ST shows a better performance in the summer precipitation prediction.