CAJ | 학술논문

近10年来，随着数值预报技术的进步，探测手段的日臻完善和丰富，以及高性能计算机快速发展和应用，现代天气预报技术取得了显著的进步，其中快速更新同化分析和预报、集合预报、概率预报以及数字化预报等新技术的应用，促进了中国天气预报业务水平的提高，在中国防灾减灾、保障社会经济发展和人民安康福祉的气象服务中发挥了重要作用。回顾和介绍了近10年中国现代天气预报新技术，主要包括基于中尺度模式的多源资料快速更新同化预报技术，提供灾害性、极端性天气预报的不确定性信息的集合预报和概率预报技术及高时空分辨率气象要素的数字化预报技术，展望未来发展趋势，以期能够对未来天气预报技术发展提供借鉴和参考。
근10년래，수착수치예보기술적진보，탐측수단적일진완선화봉부，이급고성능계산궤쾌속발전화응용，현대천기예보기술취득료현저적진보，기중쾌속경신동화분석화예보、집합예보、개솔예보이급수자화예보등신기술적응용，촉진료중국천기예보업무수평적제고，재중국방재감재、보장사회경제발전화인민안강복지적기상복무중발휘료중요작용。회고화개소료근10년중국현대천기예보신기술，주요포괄기우중척도모식적다원자료쾌속경신동화예보기술，제공재해성、겁단성천기예보적불학정성신식적집합예보화개솔예보기술급고시공분변솔기상요소적수자화예보기술，전망미래발전추세，이기능구대미래천기예보기술발전제공차감화삼고。
The modern weather forecast technology in China has made significant progresses due to the development of the theoˉ ry of atmospheric science,numerical prediction technology,increasingly rich detection means,the application of high performˉ ance computer and digital forecast technique in the recent 10 years.On the other hand,it also promoted the forecast service levˉ el and ability in China owing to the application of the rapid update cycle assimilation/forecast,ensemble prediction technique, probability forecast and digital forecast tools in the weather forecast.It has played a significant role in meteorological service in meeting the needs of the national disaster prevention and mitigation and safeguarding social economic development and people's life and property.This paper summarized the new technology of modern weather forecast developed by China Meteorological Administration in the recent 10 years,including the technique of the rapid multiˉsource data update cycle assimilation/forecast based on mesoscale numerical model,ensemble prediction and probabilistic forecast for the uncertainty in extreme and severe weather,as well as the digital forecast tools for the high resolution meteorological elements,and look forward to its future deˉ velopment trend.This would benefit to provide reference to the weather forecast technology developer and decisionˉmaker.