CAJ | 학술논문

在进行考虑多种因素综合影响下油田开发动态指标预测时，缺少定量化模拟预测方法，油藏工程方法由于多属于机理型模型、单一条件统计规律模型，不适合此类条件下的定量预测。本文提出了一种考虑多参数约束控制拟合的开发动态预测方法，输入参数可包括产量、成本、工作量等。由统计理论根据历史信息实现系统指标变化情况的模拟，建立系统的输入输出关联关系，进而外推进行预测。提出的开发动态预测方法反映了实际开发过程中各种因素的复杂影响。
재진행고필다충인소종합영향하유전개발동태지표예측시，결소정양화모의예측방법，유장공정방법유우다속우궤리형모형、단일조건통계규률모형，불괄합차류조건하적정량예측。본문제출료일충고필다삼수약속공제의합적개발동태예측방법，수입삼수가포괄산량、성본、공작량등。유통계이론근거역사신식실현계통지표변화정황적모의，건립계통적수입수출관련관계，진이외추진행예측。제출적개발동태예측방법반영료실제개발과정중각충인소적복잡영향。
Reservoir engineering methods does not suit for quantitative prediction in multi-parameter conditions, which leads to a lack of prediction method for dynamic index in oilfield development. This paper presents a method to predict the development dynamic by constraint control fitting under multi-parameters. The input parameters may include production, cost, workload, and numerous other items. Based on the simulation of history information, it can make extrapolation forecast. This method reflects the complex of all kinds of factors in actual development process.