农业工程学报
農業工程學報
농업공정학보
2014年
23期
185-191
,共7页
作物%干旱%损失%玉米%产量%评估模型
作物%榦旱%損失%玉米%產量%評估模型
작물%간한%손실%옥미%산량%평고모형
crops%drought%losses%maize%yield%evaluation model
为研究干旱对西南地区玉米产量的影响，该文根据气候相似、发育期相近、农业生产水平相当的原则将西南地区玉米种植区分成6个亚区，利用1961－2010年西南地区63个代表站点逐日气象资料，计算逐旬水分盈亏指数，建立逐旬干湿指数，并基于旬干湿指数建立玉米干旱累积指数，同时结合玉米单产资料，构建玉米干旱产量损失评估模型。结果表明，玉米生育期内旬干湿指数与该旬的土壤湿度相关性较好；西南6个亚区玉米干旱产量损失评估模型均通过0.05水平的F检验，通过代表站、西南干旱年玉米干旱累积指数与干旱产量损失间的统计分析，两者之间具有显著的相关性，检验水平F均在0.05以上。模型能较准确地评估玉米发生干旱时的产量损失，具有一定的应用和深入研究价值。
為研究榦旱對西南地區玉米產量的影響，該文根據氣候相似、髮育期相近、農業生產水平相噹的原則將西南地區玉米種植區分成6箇亞區，利用1961－2010年西南地區63箇代錶站點逐日氣象資料，計算逐旬水分盈虧指數，建立逐旬榦濕指數，併基于旬榦濕指數建立玉米榦旱纍積指數，同時結閤玉米單產資料，構建玉米榦旱產量損失評估模型。結果錶明，玉米生育期內旬榦濕指數與該旬的土壤濕度相關性較好；西南6箇亞區玉米榦旱產量損失評估模型均通過0.05水平的F檢驗，通過代錶站、西南榦旱年玉米榦旱纍積指數與榦旱產量損失間的統計分析，兩者之間具有顯著的相關性，檢驗水平F均在0.05以上。模型能較準確地評估玉米髮生榦旱時的產量損失，具有一定的應用和深入研究價值。
위연구간한대서남지구옥미산량적영향，해문근거기후상사、발육기상근、농업생산수평상당적원칙장서남지구옥미충식구분성6개아구，이용1961－2010년서남지구63개대표참점축일기상자료，계산축순수분영우지수，건립축순간습지수，병기우순간습지수건립옥미간한루적지수，동시결합옥미단산자료，구건옥미간한산량손실평고모형。결과표명，옥미생육기내순간습지수여해순적토양습도상관성교호；서남6개아구옥미간한산량손실평고모형균통과0.05수평적F검험，통과대표참、서남간한년옥미간한루적지수여간한산량손실간적통계분석，량자지간구유현저적상관성，검험수평F균재0.05이상。모형능교준학지평고옥미발생간한시적산량손실，구유일정적응용화심입연구개치。
Impacts of climate change on agriculture has received wide concerns, yet evaluation technology of the effect of the drought disaster on the crop yields needs further research particularly in developing countries. Maize cultivation occupies extremely important position in agricultural production in this region. It holds great importance to study the evolution of the drought to provide references for disaster prevention and avoiding disadvantages. Drought is the main meteorological disasters during maize growth periods, and high frequency and large-scale drought poses serious threat to maize growth and yield. Recently, the government departments and related research institutions have focused on the drought matter in Southwest. Based on the principle of similar climate growth period and agricultural production level, corn planting areas in Southwest China are divided into 6 sub-regions. Using the daily meteorological data and maize data from 63 representative stations in Southwest China from 1961 to 2010, the study calculated water profit and loss index in each sub-region, then computed the weighted sum of the water profit and loss index over the past three ten-day, finally got the ten-day wetness index. According to the ten-day wetness index and influence coefficient, the maize cumulative index was built. The study developed yield drought loss assessment model and verified the model by selecting some typical drought years and representative stations in each sub-region. The results showed that the wetness index by 10 days in the growth period had a good relationship with soil moisture. The assessment model of maize drought loss yield in 6 sub-regions passed F-test (p<0.05) and corn cumulative indices of drought in drought year in Southwest China had good relation to the yield loss in drought through the statistical analysis of the representative station. With changes of the same drought cumulative indices, there were slight differences in yield loss in each sub-region. Yield loss in the sub-regions ofⅡandⅢwere relatively small, while relatively large in the sub-regions ofⅠandⅤ. The model can estimate the yield loss in drought accurately, and provide references for application and deep research.
