电子测试
電子測試
전자측시
ELECTRONIC TEST
2014年
24期
30-32
,共3页
电子病历%临床数据%组合预测%几何平均
電子病歷%臨床數據%組閤預測%幾何平均
전자병력%림상수거%조합예측%궤하평균
EMC%clinical data%Combination of forecasts%geometric averaging
电子病历临床数据的单项预测方法不能精确的预测医院的就诊人数。本文建立了基于一阶预测有效度的几何平均组合预测模型，对就诊人数进行预测，并且将非线性组合预测模型变换成为能够运用现成的线性规划软件求解的线性规划模型问题。最后以东南大学附属中大医院某一科室的电子病历临床数据为例，对未来就诊人数进行预测，结果表明该组合预测方法是可行有效的。
電子病歷臨床數據的單項預測方法不能精確的預測醫院的就診人數。本文建立瞭基于一階預測有效度的幾何平均組閤預測模型，對就診人數進行預測，併且將非線性組閤預測模型變換成為能夠運用現成的線性規劃軟件求解的線性規劃模型問題。最後以東南大學附屬中大醫院某一科室的電子病歷臨床數據為例，對未來就診人數進行預測，結果錶明該組閤預測方法是可行有效的。
전자병력림상수거적단항예측방법불능정학적예측의원적취진인수。본문건립료기우일계예측유효도적궤하평균조합예측모형，대취진인수진행예측，병차장비선성조합예측모형변환성위능구운용현성적선성규화연건구해적선성규화모형문제。최후이동남대학부속중대의원모일과실적전자병력림상수거위례，대미래취진인수진행예측，결과표명해조합예측방법시가행유효적。
Based on EMC of clinical data, single forecast model could not predict the number of hospital patients accurately.Geometric averaging combination forecasting method was proposed based on first-order prediction effectiveness criteria,and to predict the number of hospital patients.Then we turn the nonlinear combination forecasting model into the linear programming model,and eventually we can use existing linear programming software to solve the linear programming model.Finally,according to the EMC of clinical data of ZhangDa Hospital Southeast University,we utilize the combination forecasting model to predict the number of hospital patients,and to demonstrate its practicality and effectiveness.
