工业技术经济
工業技術經濟
공업기술경제
INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY & ECONOMY
2014年
12期
66-72
,共7页
最终消费%协整分析%Granger因果关系检验%经济增长
最終消費%協整分析%Granger因果關繫檢驗%經濟增長
최종소비%협정분석%Granger인과관계검험%경제증장
final consumption%co-integration analysis%granger causality test%economic growth
根据1978～2012年我国最终消费和国内生产总值数据，借助于eviews6.0软件，通过协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、误差修正模型对我国最终消费和经济增长关系进行了实证分析。结果发现：农村居民消费、城镇居民消费、政府消费与经济增长之间存在着稳定的均衡关系；我国农村居民消费对经济增长的拉动作用最强，其次是政府消费，最后是城镇居民消费；城镇居民消费、政府消费是经济增长的单向格兰杰原因。政府消费是农村居民消费、城镇居民消费的单向格兰杰原因。
根據1978～2012年我國最終消費和國內生產總值數據，藉助于eviews6.0軟件，通過協整檢驗、格蘭傑因果檢驗、誤差脩正模型對我國最終消費和經濟增長關繫進行瞭實證分析。結果髮現：農村居民消費、城鎮居民消費、政府消費與經濟增長之間存在著穩定的均衡關繫；我國農村居民消費對經濟增長的拉動作用最彊，其次是政府消費，最後是城鎮居民消費；城鎮居民消費、政府消費是經濟增長的單嚮格蘭傑原因。政府消費是農村居民消費、城鎮居民消費的單嚮格蘭傑原因。
근거1978～2012년아국최종소비화국내생산총치수거，차조우eviews6.0연건，통과협정검험、격란걸인과검험、오차수정모형대아국최종소비화경제증장관계진행료실증분석。결과발현：농촌거민소비、성진거민소비、정부소비여경제증장지간존재착은정적균형관계；아국농촌거민소비대경제증장적랍동작용최강，기차시정부소비，최후시성진거민소비；성진거민소비、정부소비시경제증장적단향격란걸원인。정부소비시농촌거민소비、성진거민소비적단향격란걸원인。
〔Abstract〕 According to the final consumption and GDP data from 1978 to 2012 , with the eviews 6.0 software , through the co -in-tegration test , granger causality test and error correction model , we makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between final consump-tion and the economic growth of China . The results are as follows :there exists a stable equilibrium relationship between the consumption of rural residents , urban residents'consumption , government consumption and economic growth ;the rural residents'consumption has the strongest driving effect on economic growth , followed by the government consumption , the last is the urban residents'consumption . Urban residents'consumption , government consumption is one -way granger cause of economic growth . Government consumption is one -way granger cause of rural residents consumption and urban residents consumption .
