工业技术经济
工業技術經濟
공업기술경제
INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY & ECONOMY
2014年
12期
49-58
,共10页
二元经济结构%包容性增长%脉冲响应函数%方差分解
二元經濟結構%包容性增長%脈遲響應函數%方差分解
이원경제결구%포용성증장%맥충향응함수%방차분해
dual economic structure%inclusive growth%impulse response function%variance decomposition
二元经济结构在多数发展中国家广泛存在，并成为桎梏各国包容性增长的主要因素。本文分别以综合二元反差指数、包容性增长系数作为衡量二元经济结构与包容性增长的指标来构建VAR模型，并通过脉冲响应函数法与方差分解法对我国1978～2012年二元经济结构与包容性增长的互动效应进行实证研究。结果表明，包容性增长提高对二元经济结构转化具有长期显著地促进作用，且其贡献度随着时间的推移不断提高，最终稳定在高水平；二元经济结构强化对包容性增长在当期没有明显影响，但随后包容性增长表现出显著的、持久的恶化倾向，同时其贡献度经历短期的持续上升后稳定在相对低水平。基于本文结论，政府需要在提高经济增长包容性与促进二元经济转化上同时着力，以实现二元经济结构转化与包容性增长提高之间的良性循环。
二元經濟結構在多數髮展中國傢廣汎存在，併成為桎梏各國包容性增長的主要因素。本文分彆以綜閤二元反差指數、包容性增長繫數作為衡量二元經濟結構與包容性增長的指標來構建VAR模型，併通過脈遲響應函數法與方差分解法對我國1978～2012年二元經濟結構與包容性增長的互動效應進行實證研究。結果錶明，包容性增長提高對二元經濟結構轉化具有長期顯著地促進作用，且其貢獻度隨著時間的推移不斷提高，最終穩定在高水平；二元經濟結構彊化對包容性增長在噹期沒有明顯影響，但隨後包容性增長錶現齣顯著的、持久的噁化傾嚮，同時其貢獻度經歷短期的持續上升後穩定在相對低水平。基于本文結論，政府需要在提高經濟增長包容性與促進二元經濟轉化上同時著力，以實現二元經濟結構轉化與包容性增長提高之間的良性循環。
이원경제결구재다수발전중국가엄범존재，병성위질곡각국포용성증장적주요인소。본문분별이종합이원반차지수、포용성증장계수작위형량이원경제결구여포용성증장적지표래구건VAR모형，병통과맥충향응함수법여방차분해법대아국1978～2012년이원경제결구여포용성증장적호동효응진행실증연구。결과표명，포용성증장제고대이원경제결구전화구유장기현저지촉진작용，차기공헌도수착시간적추이불단제고，최종은정재고수평；이원경제결구강화대포용성증장재당기몰유명현영향，단수후포용성증장표현출현저적、지구적악화경향，동시기공헌도경력단기적지속상승후은정재상대저수평。기우본문결론，정부수요재제고경제증장포용성여촉진이원경제전화상동시착력，이실현이원경제결구전화여포용성증장제고지간적량성순배。
〔Abstract〕 Dual economic structure widely exists in most developing countries , and has become the main factor of all the shackles of inclusive growth . In this paper , Comprehensive Dual Contrast Index and Inclusive Growth Coefficient , respectively as indicators to mea-sure dual economic structure and inclusive growth , are used to build the VAR model . Then an empirical study on the interactive effect be-tween dual economic structure and inclusive growth from 1978 to 2012 in China is enacted through the Impulse Response Function and Vari-ance Decomposition method . The results show that , the improvement of inclusive growth has long -term significant promoting effect on the dual economic structure transformation , and the contribution degree increases gradually with time , eventually stabilizing at a high level ;the reinforcement of dual economic structure has no obvious effect to inclusive growth in the current period , but subsequently the inclusive growth shows a significant , lasting deterioration tendency , while the contribution degree stabilizes at relatively low levels after experiencing a sustained rise in the short-term . Based on this conclusion , the government needs to improve the inclusiveness of economic growth and promote dual economic structure transformation at the same time , to achieve a virtuous circle of dual economic structure transformation and inclusive growth .
