CAJ | 학술논문

埃博拉病毒病（EVD）是严重的、往往致命的人类疾病，病死率高达90％。埃博拉病毒病疫情主要发生在中非和西非靠近热带雨林的边远村庄。该病毒通过野生动物传到人，并且通过人际间传播在人群中蔓延。病情严重的患者需要获得重症支持治疗，无论对人还是对动物都无可用的已获正式许可的特异性治疗办法或者疫苗。由于缺乏有效的治疗手段和人用疫苗，提高对感染埃博拉危险因素的认识以及个人可以采取一些保护措施，这是减少人类感染和死亡的唯一方法。本文建立一个埃博拉病毒的数学模型，对疫情进行实证分析；并且对疫情的发展也做了一个预测。
애박랍병독병（EVD）시엄중적、왕왕치명적인류질병，병사솔고체90％。애박랍병독병역정주요발생재중비화서비고근열대우림적변원촌장。해병독통과야생동물전도인，병차통과인제간전파재인군중만연。병정엄중적환자수요획득중증지지치료，무론대인환시대동물도무가용적이획정식허가적특이성치료판법혹자역묘。유우결핍유효적치료수단화인용역묘，제고대감염애박랍위험인소적인식이급개인가이채취일사보호조시，저시감소인류감염화사망적유일방법。본문건립일개애박랍병독적수학모형，대역정진행실증분석；병차대역정적발전야주료일개예측。
Ebola virus disease (EVD),formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever,is a severe,often fatal illness in humans. EVD outbreaks have a case fatality rate of up to 90%. EVD outbreaks occur primarily in remote villages in Central and West Africa,near tropical rainforests. The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals and spreads in the human population through human-to-human transmission. Severely ill patients require intensive supportive care. No licensed specific treatment or vaccine is available for use in people or animals. In the absence of effective treatment and a human vaccine,raising awareness of the risk factors for Ebola infection and the protective measures being taken are the only two ways to reduce human infection and death. This paper established a mathematical model of Ebola virus,and made an empirical analysis of epidemic diseases. Furthermore,we made a prediction to the development of epidemic.