气象科技进展
氣象科技進展
기상과기진전
Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology
2014年
6期
13-26
,共14页
天气预报%三次跃进%集合预报%瞬变气候%瞬变扰动
天氣預報%三次躍進%集閤預報%瞬變氣候%瞬變擾動
천기예보%삼차약진%집합예보%순변기후%순변우동
weather forecasting%three revolutions%weather map%numerical weather prediction%ensemble forecasting%variable decomposition
回顾过去100多年,天气预报经历了两次跃进:第一次是地面和高空天气图的绘制和应用(空间上的跃进),第二次是数值预报的实施(时间上的跃进)。经过这两次跃进,天气预报已经走过了从经验和定性描述到今天定量计算的一门数理学科。洛伦兹发现大气混沌现象后,天气预报正在经历从单一确定论到多值概率论的第三次跃进(观念上的革命),并试图通过量化或简化不确定因素来提高天气的可预报性和降低预报的不确定性。重点介绍两种现行的量化或简化不确定因素的做法:一是直接面对问题(量化),即用集合预报的方法,定量描述预报的不确定性,使之成为预报的一部分,让用户在决策时科学地应用更全面的预报信息;二是绕开数学上的难题(简化),把大气变量分解为瞬变气候与瞬变扰动两个部分,用瞬变扰动建立与异常天气之间的联系。
迴顧過去100多年,天氣預報經歷瞭兩次躍進:第一次是地麵和高空天氣圖的繪製和應用(空間上的躍進),第二次是數值預報的實施(時間上的躍進)。經過這兩次躍進,天氣預報已經走過瞭從經驗和定性描述到今天定量計算的一門數理學科。洛倫玆髮現大氣混沌現象後,天氣預報正在經歷從單一確定論到多值概率論的第三次躍進(觀唸上的革命),併試圖通過量化或簡化不確定因素來提高天氣的可預報性和降低預報的不確定性。重點介紹兩種現行的量化或簡化不確定因素的做法:一是直接麵對問題(量化),即用集閤預報的方法,定量描述預報的不確定性,使之成為預報的一部分,讓用戶在決策時科學地應用更全麵的預報信息;二是繞開數學上的難題(簡化),把大氣變量分解為瞬變氣候與瞬變擾動兩箇部分,用瞬變擾動建立與異常天氣之間的聯繫。
회고과거100다년,천기예보경력료량차약진:제일차시지면화고공천기도적회제화응용(공간상적약진),제이차시수치예보적실시(시간상적약진)。경과저량차약진,천기예보이경주과료종경험화정성묘술도금천정량계산적일문수이학과。락륜자발현대기혼돈현상후,천기예보정재경력종단일학정론도다치개솔론적제삼차약진(관념상적혁명),병시도통과양화혹간화불학정인소래제고천기적가예보성화강저예보적불학정성。중점개소량충현행적양화혹간화불학정인소적주법:일시직접면대문제(양화),즉용집합예보적방법,정량묘술예보적불학정성,사지성위예보적일부분,양용호재결책시과학지응용경전면적예보신식;이시요개수학상적난제(간화),파대기변량분해위순변기후여순변우동량개부분,용순변우동건립여이상천기지간적련계。
The scientiifc evolution of weather forecasts is brielfy reviewed from a historical perspective in this paper. During the last 100 years, applications of weather maps (surface and upper air) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) to daily weather forecasts marked two major achievements:weather maps expanded our view from two dimensions to three dimensions in space and NWP brought us ahead of real weather in time. Through these advancements, weather forecasting has gradually evolved from an empirical to a qualitatively-reasoning and further to an exact physical science based on mathematical equations. With the discovery of chaos by Prof. Edward Lorenz, weather forecasting is now undergoing its third philosophical revolution from a deterministic to probabilistic world to facing the reality of its limited predictability. Two different approaches are presented, as the main focus of this paper, to deal with the limitation of predictability and forecast uncertainty: one is using ensemble forecasting technique to directly quantify and include forecast uncertainty information in a forecast which can be utilized by end-users to make better decisions;the other is an attempt to have a workaround of nonlinearity mathematically by decomposing a meteorological ifeld into climatic and anomalous two components. Therefore, weather forecasting could be possibly simpliifed in dealing with the anomalous components only.