CAJ | 학술논문

针对重庆东水门长江大桥桥塔上部应变长期监测数据，采用ARMA技术对其进行建模处理并预测其未来发展趋势。试验结果显示，采用ARMA方法对应变量向后外推5步的预测误差小于6%。预测结果在工程应用中具有一定的参考价值，为桥梁结构的安全预警提供了可靠的科学依据。
침대중경동수문장강대교교탑상부응변장기감측수거，채용ARMA기술대기진행건모처리병예측기미래발전추세。시험결과현시，채용ARMA방법대응변량향후외추5보적예측오차소우6%。예측결과재공정응용중구유일정적삼고개치，위교량결구적안전예경제공료가고적과학의거。
Aiming at long-term monitoring data on upper strain of tower of Chongqing Dongshuimen Yangtze River Bridge, this paper establishes its model and predicts its development tendency in the future by means of ARMA technique. Test results show that the error of prediction by pushing strain 5 steps backward by means of ARMA method is less than 6%. The prediction results exhibit certain reference values in project application and provide reliable scientific bases for safety alert of bridge structures.