CAJ | 학술논문

针对注汽锅炉的危险因素，基于对各基本事件发生的偶然性、不确定性，采用三角模糊数来表示事件发生的概率，进而求得顶上事件发生的概率。把事故树的理论分析和模糊数学两者结合起来，经过模糊运算得出各危险因素对注汽锅炉的破坏概率的区间值，确定模糊重要度，并对此进行排序，确定主次影响因素，并基于各危险因素绘制事故树，利用最小割集法和布尔代数法指出锅炉爆管的途径，给出引发该事故的模糊概率。分析了导致事故的原因，提出了注汽锅炉的保护措施。
침대주기과로적위험인소，기우대각기본사건발생적우연성、불학정성，채용삼각모호수래표시사건발생적개솔，진이구득정상사건발생적개솔。파사고수적이론분석화모호수학량자결합기래，경과모호운산득출각위험인소대주기과로적파배개솔적구간치，학정모호중요도，병대차진행배서，학정주차영향인소，병기우각위험인소회제사고수，이용최소할집법화포이대수법지출과로폭관적도경，급출인발해사고적모호개솔。분석료도치사고적원인，제출료주기과로적보호조시。
Based on the risk of steam inj ection boiler,and contingency and uncertainty of each basic events ,the triangular fuzzy number was used to show the probability of events,then get the top event probability.Combined with the fault tree analysis and fuzzy mathematics,through the fuzzy operation,the interval value of failure probability of hazards of steam inj ection boiler was obtained,and the fuzzy importance degree,sequence and main factors were determined.Drawing a fault tree based on various risk factors,using the method of minimal cut sets and Boolean algebra method,the boiler burst pathway tubes were showed,and fuzzy probability causing the accident was arrived.The causes of the accidents were analyzed,and protective measures of the steam inj ection boiler were proposed.