CAJ | 학술논문

台风暴雨是诱发边坡失稳的重要因素。为探讨暴雨作用下高台阶排土场稳定性计算方法，引入可靠度理论进行分析。通过对影响排土场边坡稳定性的不确定因素分析，建立排土场边坡可靠度分析流程。以福建龙岩某铁矿排土边坡为实例，对排土边坡强度参数进行敏感度分析，得出内摩擦角φ的敏感度＞内聚力 c 敏感度；以降雨强度为60 mm／d 持续降雨72 h 排土边坡可靠度指标的求解为例，对排土场边坡的稳定性进行可靠度分析。结果表明，此时排土场边坡可靠度指标为6．054，破坏概率为0。根据《有色金属矿山排土场设计规范》以1．12为设计安全系数，排土边坡失稳概率为29．63％，相应的安全概率为70．37％。
태풍폭우시유발변파실은적중요인소。위탐토폭우작용하고태계배토장은정성계산방법，인입가고도이론진행분석。통과대영향배토장변파은정성적불학정인소분석，건립배토장변파가고도분석류정。이복건룡암모철광배토변파위실례，대배토변파강도삼수진행민감도분석，득출내마찰각φ적민감도＞내취력 c 민감도；이강우강도위60 mm／d 지속강우72 h 배토변파가고도지표적구해위례，대배토장변파적은정성진행가고도분석。결과표명，차시배토장변파가고도지표위6．054，파배개솔위0。근거《유색금속광산배토장설계규범》이1．12위설계안전계수，배토변파실은개솔위29．63％，상응적안전개솔위70．37％。
Rainstorm is an important factor of inducing slope instability .The calculation of the stability of hillside waste-dumps with high stairs under rainstorm was discussed by introducing reliability theory .The basic process of reliability analysis of waste-dump slopes was established by analyzing the uncertain factors affecting the slope stability of the dump . According to an example of mine waste dump slope in Longyan city of Fujian province ,analysis of sensitivity factors based on strength parameters indicate that internal friction > internal force c .Then ,According to the process of solving reliability index on condition of the rainfall strength of 60 mm/day sustaining 72 h ,the result manifests that the reliability index is 6 .054 and the failure probability is 0 .Finally ,when the value of safety factor is 1 .12 as specified in the Code for Waste Dump Design of Nonferrous Metal Mines ,the failure probability of waste-dump slope is 29 .63% ,with the cor-responding safety probability of 70 .37% .