CAJ | 학술논문

针对使用时序蒙特卡洛法的可靠性评估计算效率低下、收敛特性较差等问题，提出一种结合基于交叉熵的重要抽样法和全概率公式法的混合时序蒙特卡洛评估算法，将其应用于发电系统可靠性评估中。基本思想是利用交叉熵优化过程获得近似零方差重要抽样密度函数，然后根据此时各元件故障率的扭曲程度确定对系统可靠性最重要的元件，对这些最重要的元件使用全概率公式，然后利用得到的各元件的新参数进行发电系统可靠性评估。由于两种基于不同原理的方差技术被组合使用，所以计算效率进一步提高，收敛速度进一步加快。最后使用可靠性测试系统IEEE-RTS以及修改后的测试系统对提出的方法进行验证，将所提方法（TP-CE-MCS）的测试结果与传统时序蒙特卡洛法（MCS）、基于交叉熵的时序蒙特卡洛法（CE-MCS）和基于全概率公式的时序蒙特卡洛方法（TP-MCS）得到的结果进行比较，表明该方法在保证评估精度的基础上更进一步提高了计算速度。
침대사용시서몽특잡락법적가고성평고계산효솔저하、수렴특성교차등문제，제출일충결합기우교차적적중요추양법화전개솔공식법적혼합시서몽특잡락평고산법，장기응용우발전계통가고성평고중。기본사상시이용교차적우화과정획득근사령방차중요추양밀도함수，연후근거차시각원건고장솔적뉴곡정도학정대계통가고성최중요적원건，대저사최중요적원건사용전개솔공식，연후이용득도적각원건적신삼수진행발전계통가고성평고。유우량충기우불동원리적방차기술피조합사용，소이계산효솔진일보제고，수렴속도진일보가쾌。최후사용가고성측시계통IEEE-RTS이급수개후적측시계통대제출적방법진행험증，장소제방법（TP-CE-MCS）적측시결과여전통시서몽특잡락법（MCS）、기우교차적적시서몽특잡락법（CE-MCS）화기우전개솔공식적시서몽특잡락방법（TP-MCS）득도적결과진행비교，표명해방법재보증평고정도적기출상경진일보제고료계산속도。
In view of the low calculation efficiency,poor convergence properties and other issues of sequential Monte Carlo reliability evaluation,this paper proposes a hybrid algorithm based on the total probability formula and cross-entropy method and the method is applied in generation system reliability assessment. The basic idea is to use cross-entropy optimization progress to obtain approximately zero variance importance sam-pling function and to determine which component is the most important for the system reliability evaluation according to the degree of distortion of every component’s failure rate. And the total probability formula is used in those important components. Because two variance reduction techniques based on the different principles are combined,the calculation efficiency is further improved,and the convergence speed is also further accelerated. The IEEE RTS Reliability Test system is used to test the proposed methodology,and various modifications of this system are created to fully verify the ability against other three methods. The comparison demonstrates the proposed hybrid MCS algorithm further improves the calculation efficiency while ensuring evaluation accuracy.