CAJ | 학술논문

当前国内外粮食供求形势在不断变化，为保障国家粮食安全，中国政府及相关部门提出研究构建国家粮食安全新战略体系。在此背景下，对中国玉米生产、消费、进出口的影响因素进行定量分析，通过构建市场均衡模型，对中国玉米供求平衡的变化与趋势进行预测分析。模型研究结果显示，对于玉米供给而言，到2025年中国玉米产量还有7．9％的上升空间，种植面积对于玉米价格的反应较为滞后，而农业补贴政策对于农民种植意愿的提高具有较为显著的效果；增强玉米生产科技要素的投入及提高抗击自然灾害的能力，有利于玉米单产水平的提高。对于玉米需求而言，到2025年中国玉米消费量将要增长38％，玉米饲用需求量和工业需求量呈刚性增长；由于玉米消费量增长速度高于生产量的增长，未来中国玉米产需缺口将会越来越大，玉米供求形势不容乐观。在此基础上，提出了立足国内生产、加大对农业四项补贴的投入力度、充分利用国际市场资源、科学调控玉米深加工等政策建议。
당전국내외양식공구형세재불단변화，위보장국가양식안전，중국정부급상관부문제출연구구건국가양식안전신전략체계。재차배경하，대중국옥미생산、소비、진출구적영향인소진행정량분석，통과구건시장균형모형，대중국옥미공구평형적변화여추세진행예측분석。모형연구결과현시，대우옥미공급이언，도2025년중국옥미산량환유7．9％적상승공간，충식면적대우옥미개격적반응교위체후，이농업보첩정책대우농민충식의원적제고구유교위현저적효과；증강옥미생산과기요소적투입급제고항격자연재해적능력，유리우옥미단산수평적제고。대우옥미수구이언，도2025년중국옥미소비량장요증장38％，옥미사용수구량화공업수구량정강성증장；유우옥미소비량증장속도고우생산량적증장，미래중국옥미산수결구장회월래월대，옥미공구형세불용악관。재차기출상，제출료립족국내생산、가대대농업사항보첩적투입력도、충분이용국제시장자원、과학조공옥미심가공등정책건의。
The situation of the food ’ supply and demand has been changing at home and abroad recently .In or-der to guarantee the national food safety , Chinese government and the relevant departmentsproposed to study and constructa new strategic system of national food safety .In this context , this paper did a quantitative analysis on the influencing factors of Chinese corn production , consumption , import and export.Based on the model of market e-quilibrium , it predicted and analyzed the changes and trend of Chinese corn supply and demand .The model result revealed the facts that , as for corn supply , there will be 7.9%of increase potential for Chinese corn production till 2025.In addition, the impact of corn price on the planting area has a comparative lag , while the agricultural subsi-dy has significant effect on the planting willingness of farmers;it can improve the unit production of corns increas-ing the input of corn production science and technology and enhancing the capacity against the natural disaster .As for corn demand , the consumption of Chinese corn will increase 38%till 2025 , and the demand of corn used for feeding and industry has been rigidly growing .For the increase speed of corn consumption is higher than that of production, the gap between production and consumption in the future will grow larger and larger .Thus, the trend of corn supply and demand in the future will not be optimistic .Based on this context , it offered some policy sugges-tions that taking national production as a base , reinforcing the input of four major agricultural subsidies , fully taking use of international market resource , scientifically adjusting further processing of corn , etc.