CAJ | 학술논문

高校非正常伤亡事件日渐增多，对高校正常的管理模式提出了严峻的考验。由于非正常伤亡事件的发生时间具有不确定性或随机性，故针对这一特点，依据云南某高校2002至2012年之间在其校园内发生的非正常伤亡事件的数据，通过利用灰色模型GM（1，1）来预测未来发生伤亡事件的年份，得出该校下次出现较严重非正常伤亡事件的年份是2014年，为此提出高校务必加强防范管理的一些措施。
고교비정상상망사건일점증다，대고교정상적관리모식제출료엄준적고험。유우비정상상망사건적발생시간구유불학정성혹수궤성，고침대저일특점，의거운남모고교2002지2012년지간재기교완내발생적비정상상망사건적수거，통과이용회색모형GM（1，1）래예측미래발생상망사건적년빈，득출해교하차출현교엄중비정상상망사건적년빈시2014년，위차제출고교무필가강방범관리적일사조시。
〔Abstract〕Abnormal casualties in universities increase gradually and challenge universities' normal management model. Since the occurrence time of abnormal casualties is uncertain and random, this paper applies the grey prediction model GM(1,1)to predict the year of future students' casualties for a university in Yunnan, based on its statistics between 2002-2012 . It is concluded that next time when the university incurs serious abnormal casualties is 2014. Therefore, some measures are proposed for universities to strengthen their precaution and management.