CAJ | 학술논문

运用VAR模型、协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应方法分析了重庆农村金融发展与经济增长之间的关系。研究结果显示：从协整关系来看，农村金融支农程度和农村金融相关率与农村经济增长率的增长呈正相关。Granger因果关系表明：重庆农村金融相关比率是农村经济增长的Granger原因，而农村金融支农程度则不是。VAR模型分析结果表明：前期的农村金融相关比率对当期农村经济增长的影响最大，前期农村金融支农程度对农村经济增长率有着较弱的负面影响，但脉冲响应显示其并没有成为农村经济增长的阻碍因素。综合而言，农村金融发展与农村经济增长存在着长期均衡状态，农村金融发展促进农村经济增长。
운용VAR모형、협정검험、Granger인과검험、맥충향응방법분석료중경농촌금융발전여경제증장지간적관계。연구결과현시：종협정관계래간，농촌금융지농정도화농촌금융상관솔여농촌경제증장솔적증장정정상관。Granger인과관계표명：중경농촌금융상관비솔시농촌경제증장적Granger원인，이농촌금융지농정도칙불시。VAR모형분석결과표명：전기적농촌금융상관비솔대당기농촌경제증장적영향최대，전기농촌금융지농정도대농촌경제증장솔유착교약적부면영향，단맥충향응현시기병몰유성위농촌경제증장적조애인소。종합이언，농촌금융발전여농촌경제증장존재착장기균형상태，농촌금융발전촉진농촌경제증장。
Using methods of VAR model,Co-integration test,Granger causality test,and imPulse re-sPonse, we analyzed the relationshiP between financial develoPment and economic growth of Chongqing’s country. Research results show that both the degree of finance suPPorting agriculture and rural financial interrelations ratio have a direct ProPortion with the rural economic growth rate from Co-integration test. The financial interrelations ratio of Chongqing’s country is the Granger cause of eco-nomic growth according to Granger causality test,but is not the same to the rural finance suPPorting agriculture degree. From the result of VAR model,we found that the Previous financial interrelations ratio has the biggest influence on the current economic growth,while the Previous degree of finance suPPorting agriculture has little negative influence on it. However,from imPulse resPonse,it is not the obstacle to Prevent rural economy from increasing. On the whole,rural finance develoPment and economic growth exist in a balance state for a long time,and financial develoPment has a Positive im-Pact on the economic growth.